Wang Xianbin: Excessive production of dynamic lithium battery will lead to a new round of shuffling

Wang Xianbin: Excessive production of dynamic lithium battery will lead to a new round of shuffling

New energy car subsidy policy begins with the slope in 2016, while proposing high-energy density routes of power lithium battery. Recently, the electric car spontaneous combustion incidents in the second connection, which triggered the general concern about the safety of electric vehicles..

On July 5, in the relevant activities, Wang Xianbin, senior research analyst, Gaiu Automobile Research Institute, conducted the theme and trend of the current status and trend of the dynamic lithium battery industry, as follows: Wang Xianbin: Hello, I am Wang Xianbin from the Gaiu Institute I am very happy today to communicate the status quo and trend of exchange of dynamic lithium batteries today. Permeability, so we feel that it is necessary to make a comprehensive discussion on this industry..

The report I shared is divided into four aspects: the first part is the current situation of industrial development; the second part is the situation of the power lithium battery market, and the third part is the prospect of the power lithium battery, and finally some of our Gai Shi Automotive Research Institute. introduce. First let’s take a look at the safety problem.

. At present, especially in recent times, the self-ignition of electric vehicles is very highly attached to everyone..

There are several major issues that have occurred in 2019, one is a short circuit caused by traffic accidents; the other is due to the expansion of the battery pack during the driving process; the third is caused by water Accident; the last one is caused by the charging process. We also analyze the Practical Tsla of TSLA and Wei Si’s two companies TSLA..

Mask believes that the current electric car spontaneous combustion, in fact, the media will enlarge this, he thinks that the probability of an accident in electric cars should be not so high, this is their view. Moreover, it has become the focus of the attention of the entire society because of the recent accidents, leading to a series of guarantees, even thousands of recalls in the near future..

The cause of security issues, we believe that there are several of the causes of some accidents of battery spontaneous combustion, one is thermochaped, high temperature environment, resulting in SEI membrane decomposition. The second is electrochemical problems, such as battery production processes incorporating some impurities caused by. The third is a mechanical problem, for example, some collisions may occur, resulting in a short circuit of mechanical damage.

. We believe that different safety accidents should be solved from different perspectives, such as how to prevent thermal out of control, do this design in the prevention stage, and do some control from the perspective of BMS. Electrochemical, may be reduced in the manufacturing process, and the strengthening of system security design.

In addition, it is said that the current energy density of the three-yuan material system is important in 100Wh / kg-250Wh / kg, it is difficult to meet the needs of customers on long-range needs.. At the same time, many manufacturers have a very clear battery technology plan, but the advancement of technology should be relatively slow, so the mileage is long-term, which is also a relatively large problem with the entire dynamic lithium battery industry.

. At the same time, the cost of the power lithium battery is still relatively high, and now the basic power lithium battery occupies 42%..

Here I got the case of Bev, if we pulled the price of the Evhao GL elite and the price of the Evhao Ev450 this car, we look at the same specification, the electric version and the fuel version actually its difference is almost More than 50,000, then the battery is worth 45,000 in the reflection of the difference, this is what we think that the electric car will unable to solve a big problem in the future.. In general, the entire industry now has a very serious structured overcapacity, some of our statistics show that only CATL’s production utilization rate reaches 70%, and most of the company’s production utilization rate is around 20%.

Even some companies are below 20%. According to incomplete statistics, in 2018, China’s overall power lithium battery production is close to 260GWH, but the real installed capacity is only 50GWH, so we believe that with foreign companies come in, including the current vehicle factory and professional power lithium battery company joint venture And even some of the auto-battery business self-made situations, it will lead to excessive output of the entire market, which will cause a new round of shuffling throughout the industry..

Another topic, the current recycling and ladder of the power lithium battery is also very serious, and there is no problem with some safety hazards in time, and the pollution of environmental soil is long-term issues.. At the same time, there are many rare metals in the ternary materials, if a circular recovery measures are taken, the waste of the entire rare metal is also very large.

. At the same time, power lithium battery recovery and ladder use problems also face technical problems such as a variety of battery types, a variety of non-uniform product standards, residual evaluation; cost, due to the battery itself is dangerous, government license, storage cost, or even There are also artificial decomposition this cost very high..

There is also existing channels how to expand, this is the power lithium battery now faces a big problem.. We believe that the future electric car is comparable to the existing fuel truck, the power lithium battery needs the corresponding goal in these dimensions.

. The first is that the system energy density can reach 350Wh / kg, which is about 600, 700 kilometers of battery life; cost probably reaching 100 US dollars / kWh; operating temperature may be more wide, including its low temperature and high temperature Performance. Therefore, from these dimensional objectives, the entire power lithium battery industry also achieves long-term development and technology iteration in terms of safety, performance and cost.

. The second part, see the power lithium battery market situation. First look at the world’s installed volume, everyone is very clear, now it is basically a global market in my country, and there are 6 shortlisses in China.

In addition, CATL’s installed capacity exceeds Panasonic in 2018, reaching the world. Although it is very obvious throughout China-Japanese and South Korea, the EU also attaches great importance to the layout of the powered lithium battery..

For example, BMW, the public and other companies, the recent public investment of 900 million euros and Northvolt joint research and development batteries, and some major companies in Europe have also begun to involve this field.. Germany, France has also begun to invest in a large amount of funds in the national level to support the development of power lithium batteries, including German Prime Minister Merkel and French President Marcong also proposed that the current electric vehicle current electric vehicle is highly dependent on the supply of Lithium battery.

However, with the large-scale popularity of electric vehicles, the technology of future batteries cannot be controlled by the control, the core value of the industrial chain will be taken away by others.. Therefore, Europe has achieved unprecedented emphasis on the entire dynamic lithium battery layout.

. Let’s take a look at my country’s domestic situation..

From January to May 2019, the entire installed capacity is 23.4GWH, maintains a relatively high growth rate, and the three-yuan battery has reached 73%, accounting for dominant, this is also a relatively straight relationship with government subsidies..

In terms of models, the installed capacity contributors of the entire market or passenger cars, basically reach a relatively high point; if in different packages, my country’s battery is still dominated. Looking at the pattern, it is important that CATL is unique, the share has exceeded 45%, the top three concentrations are relatively high, basically reached a level close to 80%..

At the same time, we also see that, especially in the performance of the passenger car, in the performance of several months, with the retreat of the entire subsidy, the amount of lithium tamite in the medium and low-end passenger products begins Increase, so lithium iron phosphate due to cost advantages, the current regression status begins to appear. According to the TOP10 power lithium battery company battery type, the important form of different companies is not very different, but my country’s mainstream is dominated, but we will also see companies like CATL include some mainstream companies to enter the soft bag lithium battery. Layout.

In a comparison of the entire form, the soft boiler battery has its own unique advantages in the product light weight, high energy density, even including security, so we also feel that the future is still compared in the high-energy battery field in the future. Big development space. The third part about the future of the power lithium battery industry.

First, the entire powered lithium battery has begun to develop by the past white list protection stage to the current white list, in fact, more focused on the upgrading of the entire industry technology and the diversification of product supply, which will lead to the entire industry threshold. Improve, will further lead to more competitiveness. At the same time, we have also seen that the relationship between the whole vehicle and the power lithium battery is very subtle.

We have listed a larger vehicle company, in the power lithium battery, battery development, battery design, battery manufacturing is almost all industrial chain in the shop, determined to be very large. For example, the Geely Group, on the one hand, joint ventures with professional power lithium battery companies, joint ventures with CATL, joint ventures with LG; on the other hand, there is a Hengyuan platform, through large-scale investment self-built factory. The entire cutting means is very obvious, the purpose is to control the core technology of the entire powered lithium battery.

Because this will involve the competitiveness of the whole vehicle, this will lead to the game between the entire dynamic lithium battery and the whole vehicle will also exacerbate.. We also see that the policy is more open, and foreign investment is also very radical in our country, and the scale is also very large.

. For example, like LG chemistry, in 2018, it is approximately 1.38 billion localized construction factories in Nanjing.

In addition, it is also a joint venture with raw materials in China, and the whole industry is. In addition, comparing the technical energy density of each power lithium battery product, such as the monomer of the pine, the monomer of LG is basically a relatively high level..

In terms of cost, the cost advantage of foreign capital is also more prominent. For example, the Panasonic-TSLA battery cell is currently $ 110 / kWh, 20% lower than the LG chemical cell product, and CATL battery cell cost is approximately $ 150 / kWh..

Therefore, in the case of cost and technical advantages, the foreign power lithium battery company has a large change in the future.. Company dimensions, first of all CATL, we see a clear plan, and is currently gradually transitioning from the current ternary 523/622 system to 811 system or even solid batteries.

. They hope that the energy density of Pack can reach 265Wh / kg.catl in 2023, they also attach great importance to the long life of the entire battery, including the reserves of the fast technology.

This is also the key points of the industry concerned and the pain points attention to the user.. Second, although BYD said that its share and CATL have a gap, the company is currently a two-line layout of three yuan and lithium phosphate, and the vertical integration is relatively high, including upstream raw materials, manufacturing, Pack and vehicle Application, etc.

, and future power lithium battery services will also be split out to list. Our view is that the era of subsidies, because the entire industrial chain can control, BYD’s control over other companies will be higher than other companies..

So we will also think that in the post-subsidy, BYD’s product competitiveness can continue.. In addition, from LG chemistry, the company has been paying attention to the soft bag, which is 300Wh / kg for about 2020 in the monomer energy density.

. We believe that LG chemistry is much larger, regardless of its own cooperation customers, no matter in my country or the global market, the future is a competitive leader company..

Regarding the future technology of the entire power lithium battery industry, I feel that everyone is already clear.. Dynamic lithium battery positive development direction is cobalt-free; negative electrode will be silicon and the silicon content will gradually increase; the electrolyte tends to reduce organic solvents, and now liquid to semi-solid state, but high ratio energy power lithium The battery is still facing the security bottleneck problem.

This is the focus of your attention, so this year’s subsidy policy does not give higher subsidy coefficients in the system energy density than 160WH / kg, but also shows that the government is also aware that if It has always encouraged high energy density, high-end mileage, resulting in security issues is more horrible. In a short time, 811 batteries are progressing, some companies in the world, such as LG Chemical, SKI, Guoxuan High-class company, etc. Basic planning is to plan in 2020, will be large in size, short time, still hope Operating operation in 3c digital, because electric cars are very complicated.

Therefore, we believe that the 811 architecture of the battery should be around 2021, the domestic market may take a relatively radical, which is more fast than the world.. We believe that 2025 is basically in the three-yuan battery, you can achieve system objectives of 2020 national planning 260WH / kg, and the cost can basically achieve national goals.

. Although lithium iron phosphate says the energy density will have limit, the system energy density is generally 140WH / kg to 160Wh / kg, and its cost advantage should be relatively three yuan before 2025. A little advantage, and lithium iron phosphate is also very high in safety, so we will also judge that lithium iron phosphate should have a certain amount of installation in the next 2 to 3 years, especially in the middle and low ends.

Regression with a certain share. Overall, the current progress of the solid-state battery is still the process of scientific research to commercialization, in the field of solid-state, Japan is relatively leading, and the patents are basically approached to more than half, and some companies are distributed in Europe and the United States and my country. The entire pattern is driven by Europe and America; Japan and South Korea generally tends to this large company, such as Japan’s Toyota, South Korea’s LG chemistry, so that the company goes to the large-scale research and development; my country is actually working with some startups in research institutes.

Realize research results. But it is generally believed that we have also seen some company plans, and 2025 may go to a mature stage..

With regard to the entire tradder, as the power lithium battery installed capacity rises, there is 5 billion market size in 2020, this is a big scale. We also see some important players, more mentioned that lithium electrical materials are like Huayou Cobalt industry, cold and cobalt industry; then dynamic lithium battery system like CATL, BYD, then third parties may be some companies like Green, everyone In fact, it is doing, but the pattern is not particularly the same..

Despite the present, we have judged that if the standardization policy of the battery is recommended to mandatory, it may have a better help to use the recycle.. We believe that future ladder uses recycling through some business models, in some areas, in some areas: such as recycling channels, on the one hand, you can sell the battery to third-party profit, on the other hand, to enhance the owner experience; second It is to use some detected battery data to analyze, then optimize the iterative battery performance; third is to sell some classified power lithium batteries to some energy storage institutions, or low-speed electric vehicles, etc.

; then the last one can Supply decomposed raw materials to battery production companies or precursor production companies, we believe that the power lithium battery will not be the same in the application scenario. For example, lithium iron phosphate can be applied to lead-acid batteries in terms of lead-acid batteries, and even lithium iron phosphate can be applied to a part of the low-end A0, A00 model for the battery life of 150-250km. Realize competition with low-speed electric vehicles; and ternary batteries may be in some high-end A00, such as Smart models, mainstream home A, B-class and web approximation, etc.

Application on the model, and the fuel power battery is important to use the long-range commercial vehicle. The fourth part, the introduction of the Gaiu Institute of Automotive Research Institute, currently our important one is to serve both in standardized data, reports, and customized consulting services..

According to data, we can supply passenger car production sales in the next 7 years to predict data, power assembly prediction data, insurance and core three-electric support sets, etc .;. In customization, we can also combine the needs of our customers and then do some recommended services, which is the general situation of our entire research institute.

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