The price of power lithium battery has always been an important indicator of the attention of people from outside the new energy vehicle industry. Since the outbreak of the new energy car market in 2014, the power lithium battery has been price cut, the price has been higher than 3 yuan / WH, which is now 1-1.2 Yuan / WH, the current price is only 1/3 in 2014, will the future price will fall? When is it falling? How big is the price reduction space? The above questions, the hydrogen cloud chain will start from the following aspects: 1.
Dynamic lithium battery industry development stage; 2, power lithium battery industry value chain; 3. Power lithium battery industry competition pattern. Hydro-cloud chain rechanging the development of the home appliance industry industry, it is not difficult to find that the power lithium battery industry is still in the rapid growth stage.
. my country’s home appliance industry introduction stage is 1987-1997, the rise is fast, the market is small, the penetration rate is low; the domestic power growth stage, the investment expansion is high, the market penetration is sharply increased, the price is continuously declined this year; 2008 to this year Home appliances enters the maturity stage, merger and reorganized, market saturation, basically stopped, price cycle fluctuations. The LED industry is also experiencing similar processes.
. Source: The dynamic lithium battery of the Niu Niu Institute is currently in the growth stage. The important judgment is: 1.
At present, it is still in the large-scale expansion production stage (2019, the statistics of Japan and South Korea dynamic lithium battery companies reached 50 billion yuan, domestic The amount involving the new energy car investment project exceeds 100 billion yuan, the power lithium battery is the core component of the new energy vehicle); 2. At present, the new energy vehicle market is still lower, less than 4% at the end of 2018. Therefore, according to the analysis of the industrial development model, it is possible to judge the power lithium battery industry in a rapid growth stage, the price is in the downlink channel.
. Further, we analyze the industrial value chain, the power lithium battery still has more than 20% of the price cuts..
Dynamic lithium battery upstream raw materials Important include positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm, electrolyte, etc., these raw materials occupy a power lithium battery cost 60-75%. Dynamic lithium batteries and important raw materials have a certain price reduction space, a positive material, and the electrolyte is affected by upstream lithium.
The price of cobalt ore has a large impact. At present, raw materials such as lithium and cobalt are still in a high level, and the positive electrode material is still 10-20% low. Space, electrolyte 15-25% lowered space.
The diaphragm is currently the highest raw material of the gross profit level, which is expected to be 10-25% down space.. Negative pole still has about 10% down space.
Lithium-ion battery manufacturing still has an optimized space, and the lithium-ion battery manufacturing is currently in a large-scale production stage. After 3-4 years, we communicate with industry engineers, the power lithium battery production link is very complicated, there are still many Optimize space, further increase production efficiency, improve the yield, reduce production costs. According to the above preliminary analysis, the price of the power lithium battery price is at least 20%.
. Source: Niu Niu Research Institute dynamic lithium battery price although there are more than 20% of the decline, it really declines, its key factor is the industry competition pattern. Many people outside the industry believe that CATL forms a large status (market share ~ 50%), the power lithium battery industry competition pattern has been stable.
The hydrogen cloud chain believes that the dynamic lithium battery industry pattern has variables, and the important basis is as follows: 1, Japanese and Korean manufacturers have not yet completed PK; 2, the power lithium battery industry has new entrants, SMEs are still large Scale investment. Source: Niu Niu Research Institute Japan and South Korean manufacturers in technology is not inferior in my country’s powered lithium battery companies, important subsidies and biased limits, Japan and South Korea can’t compete with my country, but after 2020, subsidies and other restrictions will be canceled. Japan and South Korea (Samsung, LG, Panasonic) will join competition.
It can be seen from the near future, and they have strengthened our market investment. 2020 will officially formal and our company PK..
At the same time, the hydrogen chain also sees a smaller company is also increasing investment, fighting the market, such as Fu Can Technology, October 2018 announced a 1.5 billion yuan expansion plan..
Evergrande Group’s high-profile announced the entry into the new energy vehicle area, establishing a powerful lithium battery production base, with a total investment of 150 billion yuan. The hydrogen chain believes that the power lithium battery competition pattern has not been fixed. Future competition will further intensify, and the power lithium battery price will fall.
. Through the above analysis, it can be concluded that the price of the power lithium battery has more than 20% decreased space, while the future fierce competition has caused price to drop. As for the price reduction point, the hydrogen cloud chain believes that after the subsidy will be completely canceled next year, the price of the power lithium battery will be around 10%, and the price will gradually decline.
. New Energy Automobile Main Factory currently gross profit margin is at a low level, and in the case where the terminal price must decline, the price drop pressure must be upstream of the industrial chain – power lithium battery. In addition, the hydrogen chain also judges that the price of the power lithium battery may be reduced to 7-8 hairs / WH in the next 3-5 years, and the 100-degree battery pack is about 7-8,000 yuan.
. New energy car purchase costs will be slightly or flat than the same level of fuel trains, while electric vehicles will be significantly lower than fuel cars, economical highlights. Source: Niu Niu Research Institute can foreseeable, with further decline in the price of the power lithium battery, the economy of new energy vehicles will further improve.
With the increase in battery energy, safety is improved, and the battery life is improved, electric cars can compete with fuel strokes.