The overall return of the car market will warm the phosphate charging lithium battery to reverse the market or will continue

The overall return of the car market will warm the phosphate charging lithium battery to reverse the market or will continue

With the overall recruitment of the auto market, since July, new energy automobile production and sales have two strong, power lithium battery ushered in double rising. In October, my country’s powered lithium battery loading volume reached 5.9GWH, up 44.

0% year-on-year, continued to maintain an upward trend.. Among them, the amount of three-dimensional lithium-ion battery is 3.

4GWh, up 15.7% year-on-year, fell by 19.1% from the ring, and the amount of lithium iron phosphate ion battery is 2.

4GWh, up 127.5% year-on-year, up 3.5%, lithium iron phosphate acceleration Reduce the market gap between the ternary battery.

Some analysts believe that since 2017, the subsidy policy affects the lithium iron phosphate’s installed costs, but with the implementation of new subsidies, many manufacturers have begun to turn through lithium iron phosphate. Low-cost advantages seize the market, the reaction of lithium iron phosphate will continue. Lithium iron phosphate “Dongshan again” October, my country’s powered lithium battery production is 9.

86GWH, up 47.9% year-on-year. Among them, the three-yuan battery production is 5.

5GWh, up 39.6% year-on-year, accounting for 56% of total production; the production of lithium iron phosphate ion battery is 4.3GWh, which has increased by 63% year-on-year, accounting for 43.

8% of total production, and lithium iron phosphate production has once again more than ternary batteries. , Market share continues to improve. In 2015-2019, my country’s new energy vehicle production and sales size increased by 3,311 million to 12.

06,000, annual growth rate of more than 35%.. Affected by the sales of new energy vehicles, the demand for upstream dynamic lithium-ion battery products increased, the product installed volume increased by less than 16GWH in 2015 to 62.

2GWh in 2019, increased by nearly 3 times. Although the overall trend of the industry is up, it is seen from the market, in the past 5 years, the lithium iron phosphate ion battery products have encountered “high opening”. In 2015, my country’s power lithium-ion battery shipments totaled approximately 15.

7GWH, of which lithium iron-free battery shipments reached 10.86GWh, accounting for 69.17%, and the three-dimensional ion battery shipments were 4.

26GWH, accounting for 27.13. %; In 2019, my country’s powered lithium-ion battery installed capacity reached 62.

2GWH, but the lithium-loading machine of iron phosphate was 20.2GWh, down 9% year-on-year, accounting for 32.5% of the total assembly machine, and the amount of three yuan lithium-ion battery reached 40.

5. GWH, up 22.5% year-on-year, accounting for 64.

8%, and the lithium iron phosphate market is larger than the three-yuan lithium-ion battery.. The reason for the above changes is important in the adjustment of the past subsidy policy.

. It has always been important for subsidy policies on the development of new energy auto markets..

In December 2016, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Committee of the Ministry of Development jointly announced the “Notice on Adjusting New Energy Automobile Promotion Application and Financial Subsidy Policy”. For the first time, specific requirements for new energy auto energy densities, The new energy passenger car requires that the mass energy density of the pure electric passenger vehicle power lithium battery system is not less than 90Wh / kg, which is subsidized for 1.1 times higher than 120WH / kg.

. Hua’an Securities believes that subsidy policies are based on “supporting strong support”, the battery life is increased, the energy density of the battery system is improved, and the power consumption of 100 kilometers is tightened; the subsidy policy is driven, the high-quality products of the high-end regions are constantly ending, but Lithium lithium phosphate has continued to fall due to battery energy density disadvantages. Subsidy policy factors.

In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the four ministries of the Development and Reform Commission were once again issued “Notice on Perfecting the New Energy Automobile Promotion Application and Financial Subsidy Policy” (“Notice”). “Notice” proposes that the new energy vehicle promotion application and financial subsidy policy implementation period is extended to the end of 2022, and the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 were 10%, 20%, 30%, and the above subsidy policy from 2020. It is implemented from July 23, 2020 to the transition period from July 22, 2020.

. Compared with the previous subsidy policy, “Notice” first proposed, after the transition period, the sale price before the new energy passenger car subsidies must be less than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan), which means that the price of more than 300,000 yuan Will not enjoy subsidies. At the same time, “Notice” also sets the number of sunsets of 2 million months, and can enjoy subsidy of vehicle endless miles to 300 km.

. Hua’an Securities pointed out in the research report, 2016 and 2017, the price of cobalt lithium in the upper reaches of the three-yuan lithium-ion battery has risen sharply, driving the three-yuan materials and lithium cobaltate prices with severe fluctuations..

In contrast, although the lithium phosphate energy density is less than ternary, but the structure is stable, the cycle and safety performance is a very cost-effective positive material.. Under the current subsidy method, lithium iron phosphate will resize economic advantages.

It can still achieve significant drop after considering subsidies, and lithium iron phosphate is expected to return to the power market.. According to Hua’an Securities, the current cost of lithium iron phosphate is about 0.

08 yuan / WH, the cost of use of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 is 0.29 yuan, 0.24 yuan and 0.

23 yuan / WH.. With the above data sheet, lithium iron phosphate can save from about 0.

15 yuan -0.21 yuan / WH, corresponding to the positive cost of 65% -72%..

Even if the limit is considered to consider the limit of cobalt and the ternary price, the cost of lithium iron phosphate is still significantly better than the ternary battery, and 55% and 22% of the positive and electrical cores respectively have the advantage.. Calculated with a passenger vehicle model of 55kWh and battery life, which is converted from three yuan to a tinkary version of the battery.

The battery cost drops 0.69 million yuan, the decline is approximately 13% -27%; after considering subsidies, iron lithium The version cost can still fall 0.46 million to 5.

56 million yuan, which is equivalent to a decrease of 9% -11%, and the lithium iron phosphate will be significant.. Model level.

On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and China announced the 336th batch of “road motor vehicle production companies and product notices” (referred to as “” product notice “”). According to the “product notice”, in the 253 new energy vehicle products declared, the 206 models are supported by lithium iron phosphate ion batteries, accounting for 81.4%.

. The proportion is improved, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate ion battery is further accelerating the return to the new energy vehicle. During the 2020 National Day, TSLA announced the price adjustment of the model, the standard battery life upgraded version of the subsidy was 2.

499 million yuan, the long-term rear wheel driver version of the subsidy was 309,900 yuan, the maximum decrease of more than 40,000 yuan. According to industry, the TSLAMODEL price adjustment is due to the company’s new car will be equipped with lithium iron phosphate ion batteries produced by CATL..

In addition to Tslamodel3, BYD Han EV, Wulinghong Miniev, Beiqi EC / EU Series, SAIC General Wuling Baojun E Series, Changan Ouquious, Hezhong New Energy Which series of pure electric passenger cars also launched a lithium iron ion Battery model. In addition to the cost advantage, the new process “Repair Shortboard” has a new battery process promotion to add a “new fire” for lithium iron phosphate..

In March 2020, BYD announced a new phosphate ion battery product “blade battery”, claims that there is a higher stability than the ternary batteries in the case of improving energy density, once the market is considered a three-yuan battery Terminator. According to the relevant information disclosed in BYD, the “blade battery” is based on the guarantee safety, the system energy density can reach 160Wh / kg. Compared with BYD’s “blade battery”, the industry “faucet” CATL selects “CTP” (CELLTOPACK) method under the “non-mode” technology path.

Hua’an Securities In the research report, the traditional battery pack is a battery module formed by a battery cell and a metal cover end plate, a wire harness, a binder, a conductive adhesive, a component control unit and other components, and then by the module. Composition of battery packs (PACK). In such a three-layer structure, the module has plagued the use of the support and integrated cells, but also contributes to temperature control and easy maintenance, but the existence of the module makes the entire battery pack space utilization rate, resulting in a comparable efficiency Low.

BYD and CATL have the effect of the same work, essentially by increasing volume utilization, simplifying the battery pack structure to improve energy density and cost effectiveness, and its important difference is only that the technology of “blade battery” is large. Size battery, and “CTP” focus is simplified module structure. According to Hua’an Securities, “blade battery” can increase volume utilization by 50% based on the lithium iron phosphate system, and the manufacturing cost is reduced by 30%.

. Take the first application of “blade battery” method as an example, its high performance version and long-lived version NEDC endless mileage have been upgraded to 550km and 605km respectively..

At the same time, CATLCTP technology reduces the number of components such as the wiring harness and cover of the module, and the number of parts of the entire battery pack is 40%, the production efficiency is 50%, and the system energy density is increased by 10% -15%.. Lithium “New Space” According to Hua’an Securities, under different scenarios, in 2025, the shipments of lithium iron phosphate ion batteries will reach 217-532GWh, and the composite growth rate of 6 years is 35% -56%.

. Among them, under a neutral hypothesis, it is expected that by 2025, the lithium iron ion battery shipments will reach 343GWH..

Specifically, by 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales will reach 15 million, the lithium iron phosphate permeability is approximately 20%, corresponding to the power lithium battery shipments are about 188GWH, the battery-end market space is approximately 17.1 billion yuan, corresponding The phosphate positive material market space is about 24.2 billion yuan.

. At the same time, Hua’an Securities also expects that by 2025, my country’s non-powered lithium battery market is expected to reach 155GWH..

According to the relevant information, as of 2019, my country’s lead-acid battery production is approximately 202.5GWH, accounting for approximately 40%, and the energy density and circulating life of the lithium iron phosphate ion battery can reach 4 times the lead-acid battery, with lithium iron ions. Battery price approximation lead-acid battery, lithium iron phosphate is expected to seize the lead-acid battery market share.

According to Hua’an Securities, by 2025, lithium iron phosphate alternative to lead-acid battery is or will reach 82GWH.. In addition, lithium iron phosphate will reach 10GWH, 28GWH and 35GWH, in the base station, energy storage, electric ship.

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