Lithium-ion battery resources compete for never sleep. Author / Teng Yu Source / Alpha Workshop Research Institute (ID: ALPWORKS) Old Zhang for forty years old, work is relaxed, the only hobby is stock and speech. Recently, I am very happy, in the A-share market for more than ten years, I finally tasted the taste of making money.
. On the same day, the old Zhang once again wins, and the Zhongwei shares held by 14.57%, which makes him laugh.
. Become an old man of “experts” to give a friend to talk about stock, the secret of the short-term operation is that the Ministry of Industry and Information will announce the normative conditions of lithium-ion battery industry yesterday..
The document is again referred to the energy density requirements of the power lithium-ion battery. By studying the study of lithium-ion batteries in the past two years, the energy density of the ternary positive battery is higher than the lithium iron ion battery..
So in the morning, I have been staring at the three yuan positive leading Zhongwei shares, decisively shot. At this time, I listened to the language of Lao Li plus the sentence, Zhongwei Shares (300919.sz) is a three-dollar precursor, not three yuan positive.
Old Zhang is a bit awkward, because he doesn’t understand what the three yuan prodrugs mean, and it will go home first.. Old Zhang is a little particularly good, and the love stocks also love to learn.
After years of painful losses, he understands a truth, then you have to make your own cognitive money, and learning and practical exercise is a process of understanding. When the old Zhang went home, he began to study the three-way precursor..
But I have read the information and reports of the day, and I’m still a mist.. At this time, he remembered the old white in the next door, and the old white job was in the country’s research institute.
It seems to study the new energy industry, and a lot of knowledge is old and talking to him.. So, the old Zhang will confuse the old white, and after listening, began to speak patiently to the old Zhang.
. 1. Space and time determine that the lithium-ion battery track is in the context of global double carbon, and the new energy vehicle has been unprecedented development opportunities.
. From the top three major automobiles in the world: my country’s new energy vehicles have gradually risen from 5% from the beginning of the year to 20%, and the domestic new energy passenger car sales in China is 18.21 million in the third quarter of 2021.
200%. The United States has reached 4.35 million in US new energy vehicles in the third quarter of 20021, a year-on-year increase of 104%, but the penetration is only 4%, and the distance reached 2030% of the penetration rate is far.
. From the data, the industrial development is not expected, but the transposition thinking can see that the new energy market has huge rising space..
Especially in the near future, the US government has launched high subsidy policies, which makes the industry expects to usher in a rapid development opportunity.. As the leader of the new energy car, the sales of European new energy vehicles reached 1.
56 million in the third quarter of the third quarter, up 105% year-on-year, and the penetration rate has also been 20% in the third quarter.. There is no doubt that the new energy passenger is still high.
. Lao White continued to say, talk about the factors of the scene of the scene, simply, the second is time. Due to last year’s new crown, 2020 global automobile sales were 77.
971 million units, down 13.77% from 90.42.
37 million in 2019, this year’s global auto market newly registered electric car number increased significantly. Compared with the same period last year, the total increase of 123% is 123%..
Under dual-carbon objectives, future new energy vehicles is gradually replacing fuel trucks is certain and means long-term development opportunities, and thousands of levels of such a wide market space have huge opportunities.. Obviously, the new energy car track time and space are completely.
As we all know, the core link in the entire industrial chain of the new energy vehicle is a lithium-ion battery, which accounts for about 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles.. The most competitive power is a lithium-ion battery material.
Thanks to the support of our new energy industry, the development of the lithium-ion battery industry has become a global hegemony, completing the transformation from policy support to market competition, laid a solid foundation for my country’s new energy corner overtake Base. This creates the four major materials of my country’s lithium-ion batteries (positive, negative electrode, diaphragm, and electrolyte) CR5 occupying 50% -80% of the world, and has become the most in the context of global new energy vehicle penetration. Hot investment target.
Among them, the positive material is undoubtedly the core, and the main battlefield for supply power makes it cost.. In the lithium iron phosphate cell, the positive cost is more than 30%; in the ternary battery, the positive cost is more than 50%, which is much higher than other components.
. Subsegrain, the positive material material has five categories, including lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium nickel-watery (three-membered materials, NCM), lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, lithium nickellate acid. Lithium cobaltate is important for 3C products, lithium manganate and nickel-cobalt-aluminate, due to performance and technology, due to performance and techniques, occupy small market share, dynamic lithium ion battery, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel-manganese acid lithium ion battery ( NCM) is dominated, the market share exceeds 70%.
In the past, the ternary material is an absolute protagonist, the market share is close to 50%, and the market share of iron is less than 30%.. But this year, lithium iron phosphate shipments have been more than three yuan.
. There are two layers behind, the first is the development of CTP, blade batteries, etc., so that the energy density of lithium iron phosphate is greatly improved, and the two is that the cost of iron lithium is substantially below ternary positive poles.
. Dual factors are in line with the first principle of flexion efficiency, plus lithium ion battery subsidies, so that this year Iron lithium ushered in big outbreaks. 2, three yuan is the key to the development of lithium-ion batteries in the future, however, short market pattern alternating changes do not mean the formation of long-term patterns.
For all, the most illness of the lithium-ion battery is the life, battery space and weight, so that energy density is the primary status of industry development.. According to the “Energy Saving and New Energy Automobile Technology Road Line 2.
0″, 2025, 2025, my country’s pure electric vehicle power lithium-ion battery, the energy density of 400Wh / kg, 2030 target is 500Wh / kg. At present, the domestic ternary lithium ion battery energy density can reach 200Wh / kg, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate ion battery is limited to 180Wh / kg..
Even if there is a technique breakthrough in the future, it is a ceiling that limits its energy density.. In a short time, the relationship between the two complements.
In the future, the ternary positive material is unintentionally suitable for battery high energy density requirements.. It is necessary to make investors will not be strange, as the name suggests is a mixture of three raw materials, and its representative is an ear cooked NCM battery – nickel-cobalt-containing ion battery.
The so-called NCM, in fact, three metal nickel (Ni), cobalt (CO), manganese (Mn) in terms of three-yuan materials, which are obvious, and is based on nickel-salt, cobalt salt, manganese salts, by a certain process. Prepared. During this time, the ratio of the corresponding metal can be controlled to produce different properties, and the NCM811 is a lithium ion battery in which 80% nickel, 10% cobalt and 10% manganese can be produced.
Including NCM9 * / NCM622 / NCM523 / NCM333, etc.. The difference in model is like above, from three materials added ratios.
From the industrial chain of the three-dimensional ion battery, upstream is a mineral resource such as cobalt nickel, a three-yuan precursor and a three-dimensional material, downstream is a three-dimensional lithium-ion battery.. The ternary precursor is the former step of the ternary positive material.
The production process of the ternary positive electrode material is made of three-membered precursor with lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide.. And the three-dollar precursor is the protagonist of our report, which occupies a positive material cost of more than 60%, is the most critical link of the three-dimensional positive material, which can be called the “core of the nucleus” of the lithium ion battery.
“. From the procedure, the precursor is an important feedstock comprising nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, sodium sulfate, sodium hydroxide, in order to prevent metal ions from being oxidized, the entire precursor preparation process is under the protection of inert gas nitrogen, and undergoes a basement, ingredients , Reaction, aging, filtration, washing, dry mixing, anti-hyperbus, etc., preparing process complex.
In addition to the process of technical requirements, the iterative upgrade of the product is also a major feature of the three-yuan precursor.. Taking Green Mei as an example, the company’s three-yuan precursor is fully affected by the 5 Series and 6 Series products to 8 Series and 8 Series higher nickel products, 8 Series and 8 Series above high-nickel product shipments account for more than 50%, 9 Series ultra high nickel (Ni90 and above) product sales account for more than 40%.
The continuous upgrading of the product is entered into the industrial injection, ensuring the company’s profit margin. However, as each company gradually grasps the technology of new products, open the large-scale manufacturing, the product will gradually converge, competition intensified. There is no doubt that this means that the key to the company stands out in the cost.
. 3, nickel resources is the composition of the core exploitation of the three-yuan precursor market, we can clearly discover that the cost of raw materials is close to 90%..
Under the technical path of high nickel promoting energy density, you can learn that who has mastered nickel resources who have the right to speak on the industrial chain.. And nickel resources are limited by regional distribution, and the shortage of nickel in my country is especially.
At the same time, with the proportion of high-nickel ternary batteries, new energy vehicles dynamic lithium-ion battery continues to rise, nickel supply or will turn to shortages. ▲ Left: Global Nickel Mine Production (10,000 Tons), Right: 2020 Global Nickel Mine Production Distribution (%) In this context, domestic companies are represented by Greenmei, Huayou, and the head front drive plant has been in the sea integrates nickel resources..
▲ Source: SMM, Mysteel, Company Notice, Skywind Securities Research Institute can be apparent from the table, Hu Hu You is a sharp lead in the layout of nickel resources.. According to predictive statistics: 2022-2025, Huawager will have 2.
4 / 5.7 / 8.5 / 900,000 metal tons of interest production.
2022-2025, Greenmeal Rights Yield No. 1 / 2.2 / 3.
6 / 58,000 Metal Tons. 2022-2025, Zhongwei Right Yield 0.4 / 1.
1 / 2.1 / 21,000 metal tons. Mastering the nickel resources undoubtedly buried a volkage for future market competition patterns.
In addition to the integrated method, the integration of nickel resources is the recovery of waste resources.. This is the link that many people ignore, but in the end, there is a great impact on profits.
. From the gross profit margin of each manufacturer, Greenmei has obvious advantages. ▲ Source: Zhongwei Shares Prospectus, the company’s announcement, the research of the Skywind Securities, is the resource recycling business of Green Mei, which makes the raw material costs less than competitive manufacturers.
. The company’s recycled cobalt resources exceeded my country’s original cobalt mining, and the recycled nickel resources accounted for more than 8% of my country’s original nickel production..
On the link of resource recycling, Green’s ancestors, its production, channels lead, and competitors are at the beginning. According to the data, there are 130 in Greenmei direct outlets, and 30 ladders have been established..
It is expected that the battery recovery of 2025 has a corresponding nickel production of 40,000 metal tons / year.. On the level of improving the company’s competitiveness, in addition to the integration of nickel resources, the binding of the downstream battery plant is also the key to determining success.
. From the perspective of the industry chain, the three-duty precursor is in the middle, not only by the upstream cobalt nickel, but also receives the impact of the demand of downstream battery factories..
Therefore, the three-duty precursor head company has established a deep partnership with downstream manufacturers.. Taking Zhongwei Shares as an example, the recent signing of the “Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement” with Xiaxia Tungs, from 31 December 2023, and the two sides expected the supply and demand of tetramarhe products to be 2-2.
5. Ten thousand tons / year; the supply and demand of the three-duty precursor is about 1.5-35,000 tons / year.
It is through a strategic agreement and other cooperation, Zhongwei Shares binds Ningde Times, LG Chemical, Tesla, Xiashire, etc.. Finally, from the industry’s competitive landscape, the concentration of the three-yuan precursor market is high, and the competition of the head company is fierce.
. China CR5 is 62% / 69% / 65%, respectively, in 2018-2020, respectively..
The market style has changed in 2020, affected by Wuhan epidemic, Greenmeal 2020 year shipments 415 million tons, decreased by about 30% from 2019. Zhongwei Shares rose to the industry city, accounting, Greenmei retreats. According to the 2012 December Company Investor Exchange Activity Record, Greenmeal has been fully recovered in the fourth quarter of 2020, and the epidemic impact industry has subsided.
The company’s annual report plan for 2021 three-yuan front-drive body shipments reached 100,000 tons, and the market share will be remarkably rebounded.. It can be seen that the head of the front drive industry is more concentrated, but the difference is not large, there is no absolute faucet, and the output is also elastic.
. With the layout of raw materials, recycling business, binding downstream faucets, the company has certain competitiveness, the future competition pattern is more fierce, and if the deer will die, who is still known. 4, the end of the end, the status of the positive is very embarrassed in the lithium battery industry, is a typical exquisite representative.
High cost, the highest investment intensity, but gross profit margin is the lowest, existing production is still overwhelming. In the positive industrial chain, nickel resources are undoubtedly the most profit of profits, followed by the three-dollar precursor, from the capital return rate (ROIC) clearly see the differences in the three. ▲ Source: All Company Prospections, Annual Report, Sky Sky Securities Research Institute, in the case of resource limited conditions, through integrated strategies to overseas resource is undoubtedly the company’s road, but it is easy to form a high price It is estimated, there is a pain of the Qi Qi Qi Qi to acquire SQM, existing Ningde Times, the Qi Feng Lithium Industry repeated “interception”.
The world is difficult, and the wins will be ambush, the winner is ambush.. However, the price of its victory is also extremely expensive: up to $ 400 million in transaction costs.
The key to the problem is that this business is really earned in the American lithium industry? As we all know, lithium price will significantly reduce the profit of the downstream company, the exemplary effect of integration makes the resource competition for more intense, M & A, the process of collecting the income, is not lively. However, the price of the next car downstream car is traveling downward, and the final result may lead to an imbalance in industrial chain supply in the downward track..
At that time, the sequelae leaving the radical expansion will give the company a lesson.. On the way forward in the industry twice, the current stage is just a midfielder.