Dynamic lithium battery is the core of the new energy vehicle industry, the development trend of industry has become more clear. In 2018, the total amount of power lithium battery was 56.9GWh, up nearly 51% year-on-year, CATL achieved 23.
4GWH installed capacity, market share is 41%. The BYD has a second, accounting for 20.1%, accounting for 20.
1%; the first three battercharges’ installed capacity is 66.67% of the total installation machine..
The top ten company has the total amount of installed capacity of 47GWH, accounting for 82.87% of the power lithium battery installed..
In 2017, CATL’s installed capacity is 18.59%, and the total amount of the top ten installed is 82.86%.
. It is not difficult to see that now, the concentration of the dynamic lithium battery industry has improved again, and the leading effect of the industry is more prominent..
And the most eye-catching, non-CATL. After the establishment of a year, it is not a 1 year of the leading company, and the spring breeze of the new energy car is running. We are in admiration, and we can’t help but guess: CATL’s ceiling? Is the share price unified? 2018 is very important for CATL, not only successful, but also good news, the stock price is from 30.
17 yuan from the listing, all the way up, up to 95.16 yuan, doubled three times, follow-up, to April On the 25th, it is still reported 79.10 yuan.
. After CATL, the stock price changes but interesting is that after entering the lunar calendar, although the overall market is present, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 20.86% on February 1, and the East Cai ion battery concept sector also rose.
32.43%. In the same period, the CATL of the industry faucet was only 3.
91% of the increase.. Lithium-ion battery concept Since February, the stock price changes CATL Since February, the stock price changed to other industries, such as Guizhou Maotai (38.
10%), Gree Electric (40.19%) running won the market, CATL’s performance is so unhappy If. Is there a moisture in the faucet in this industry? Should not.
4% market share, plus the continued differentiation of the market indicates that – Catl’s leading position is basically not shaken. Is the industry development expectation risk? Maybe. If there is a restriction in the future development of the industry, then the CATL of the industry is absolutely affected.
. We may wish to try to explore from the perspective of the industry..
The bargainable power, the powerful lithium battery industry is now not only in shipping concentration, and the trend of competition is different, but also facing the pressure of overproduction.. In 2018, my country’s powered lithium battery production was 260GWH, but only sold 57GWH, the output of nearly 4/5 did not release, and the yield utilization only reached 22%.
. The goal of new energy vehicles in our country is: By 2020, the domestic product goal of 2 million new energy vehicles should be reached..
Estimated with a new energy vehicle average with average charge, 2020 battery installed capacity is only 100GWH. A large number of batteries will be facing the pressure that cannot be sold. Excessive production means that the upstream of the new energy automotive industry will always be in a weak position, and the price is unable to control the product.
. With the competition in the new energy vehicle market, the cost ratio of the power-based lithium battery occupies the cost of the vehicle is 40%, as a downstream vehicle enterprise of the power lithium battery, it may suppress the battery purchase price. As the CATL of the industry leader, facing the industry’s weak position and the fierce competition in the industry, and cannot rely on its own scale to affect the domestic formation price tacit understanding.
. Therefore, future power lithium battery prices is very likely to be suppressed by the downstream procurement, resulting in a decrease in price, and the overall gross profit margin of the industry will decline, which has been reflected in CATL’s 2018..
CATL sales gross profitability industry space 2018, CATL expands many car companies, Daimler, Honda, BMW, Guangzhou Auto, Jiangling, SAIC, Geely, etc., to lock sales in advance, becoming CATL Maximum guarantee of future faucet status. Even if the battery is overprotected, it will sell gross profit in time, as long as the new energy car continues to use the power lithium battery as a source of power, the maximum beneficiary in the industry will still be CATL.
. But as the market is concerned and worried, recent, hydrogen fuel power battery concept is flourishing, and policy is constantly. In the future, the market space of the power lithium battery may be compressed by a hydrogen fuel power battery market.
. Is the power lithium battery only a transition in the market development? It is also a kind of concern and uncertainty, making the CATL of the new energy industry faucet, although there is a huge new energy car consumption space, but it is impossible to obtain the same market performance such as Maotai and Gree..
Uncomfortable is that the power lithium battery is still in progress, and its battery system still has more or less hidden dangers. Recent electric vehicles have aggravated this concern..
However, at least the development of the power lithium battery is direction, it is expected. Potential problems of hydrogen fuel power cells will only be larger. my country’s hydrogen fuel power battery is still in the stage of germination.
In the first quarter of 2019, there were only 278 vehicles and 273 fuel power batteries, and the cost of fuel power cells compared to lithium-ion batteries, no matter from technical , Or the price is closed, the distance between the fuel power battery is very distant. From the latest caliber of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: “Will further increase the work, crack the hydrogen fuel power battery car industrialization, commercialization, and vigorously promote the innovation and development of hydrogen energy and fuel power battery automotive industry in China. In addition, the high-quality sustainable development of new energy vehicles will be further promoted by accelerating measures such as charging facilities.
. “The official also recognizes that the hydrogen fuel power battery is still in a difficult research phase..
Whether it can break through the technical level in the future, when the uncertainty of preliminary commercialization and industrialization is very high. Charging battery is still the mainstream direction. Therefore, in the foreseeable 5 years, Xiao Bi privately believes that the hydrogen energy fuel power battery will be in the exploration stage, or small-scale application stages, and there will be no scale industrialization and commercial land.
. Moreover, the local new energy cars have been tempered in several years, and the mature market models have been cultivated. Most well-known foreign car companies are basically started to launch new energy models this year.
. A new energy-powered lithium battery market that enters maturity, starting into a stable rise stage, as a CATL of the faucet, will also maintain a higher market share in a medium and long term. As for future long-term development of ceilings, it may also be necessary to see whether CATL’s research and development schedule and research and development, can catch up with other opponents in the market in time.