In May, about the cobalt industry, it is destined to be a bit abnormal.. In just a few days, domestic cobalt prices ended their continued rising since 2017.
According to relevant information, the domestic cobalt reference price is approximately 6.12 million yuan / ton, compared with 664,200 yuan / ton on April 1, which is approximately 53,000 yuan / ton, drop up to 8%..
Prior to this, the high-performance cobalt raw material in lithium-circuit has a large supply and demand gap, thereby triggeting the price of cobalt from “soaring” since 2017, 2017 increased by more than 130%. At the beginning of this year, the price of cobalt continued to rise, and founded 95,000 US dollars / ton of ten years in March 21..
Just when the industry is in the industry, the high cobalt price suddenly appeared “sharp brake”, and the price suddenly plunged in the beginning of May.. Affected by this, the share price of A-strand-cobalt related listed companies, Huayou Cobalt, Cold Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, etc.
, the accumulated decline is 14.7%, 19.86%, and 9.
67% respectively.. Behind cobalt prices have explored that due to direct and subsidies of energy density, the proportion of the three-yuan battery in the passenger car field has greatly improved, and it also leads to the continuous heat of the ternary material, which essential cobalt material is easy to achieve in 2017.
The price doubled, the prospect of the existing market also attracted a lot of capital into the cobalt material market.. According to incomplete data statistics, only more than 20 companies in China have invested in the field of cobalt materials, while cross-line companies are also “a piece of company”.
. It can be seen that “cobalt grandmother” not only earned the industry, but also favored capital..
Related listed companies benefit from cobalt prices, this year’s quarter report is beautiful. Including Huayou Cobalt Industry, Cold Cobalt Industry, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry has made a good achievement..
For example, Huayou cobalt industry achieved a net profit of 50.51 billion yuan, up 238.96% year-on-year; Civil cobalt industry realized the net profit of return to 25.
55 billion yuan, up 412.52% year-on-year; Luoyang Molybdenum industry realizes the net profit of 155 billion yuan, year-on-year Rising 159.54%.
Although the price increase makes the cobalt listed company earned a lot of money, it also attracted more forces to enter, but also brought more uncertain factors to the field of cobalt materials.. It is worth noting that in addition to the direct impact of capital, the downstream demand of the current cobalt material does not appear, which also affects the instability of cobalt prices to some extent.
. The domestic battery company executives said, “The price of cobalt is declining. It is important because the current new energy market is a late season in the early spring; and the subsidy continues to adjust, and the market itself is immature, many new energy car companies Become “eliminated” and “out of the country”.
Lithium-ion battery manufacturers have a large pressure hill, and the market development strategy has adjusted, so it affects the decline in the demand of cobalt products, thereby decline in price.. “The plummeted price of cobalt, the cobalt material company made alert, after all, this phenomenon has not happened in the cobalt market in the past two years.
. But the industry believes that the price decline in cobalt materials is not accidental..
In terms of specific analysis, the cobalt horses appeared in the price of cobalt before a month.. A cobalt industry said that the reason for the price decline is important.
The first is that the speculators start to pay after obtaining interests, affect the subsequent cobalt price; followed by international trade warfare, international economic and trade relations In tensions, some speculation funds have been evacuated, resulting in a decline in cobalt prices; the last digital market is in the first half of the year, and the digital electronics industry chain upstream manufacturers represent May demand will continue to be weak.. At the same time, the order of the three-yuan material manufacturer has two polarific differentiation, and the order to the good company is in its own production, and the actual demand increments of the upstream raw materials cannot be used.
It is very difficult to decline the demand for upstream raw materials. Significant. Industry experts believe that: “The current domestic cobalt industry is extremely irregular, as long as the international market is slightly adjusted, domestic futures must be affected.
. “However, the impact of comprehensive factors, it is expected that after a few months, the domestic cobalt price market will rise, soon, it will return to normal rising state..
It is worth mentioning that Tslaceo Elon Mask is expected to discuss the topic of the income last Thursday, TSLA car will reduce the dependence of cobalt resources in the future, in order to control cost and cobalt price instability TSLA has reduced the proportion of cobalt in the battery. For expensive cobalt metal, Mask said: “I think we can reduce the amount of cobalt to zero. “In fact, as the warpage of the new energy vehicle industry, TSLA’s Model3 is used by the battery, which is the use of the highest energy density using the company.
. This is able to achieve this because the TSLA can significantly reduce the amount of cobalt while the new battery nickel component is added..
And while making this change, it still maintains excellent thermal stability of the battery.. Although the demand for cobalt throughout the new energy automotive industry is still strong, the cobalt material resources are important dependent on imports, and the cobalt material resources are limited, and the prospects of cobalt materials are not bad.
. From this point of view, cobalt prices may get certain control in the next few years, but continue to rise is still the main melody..
“Low Cobalt” road is long and the road is easy to see, because the new energy carrier subsidies cannot be issued, the downstream company has been facing severe funding pressure, and the material company cannot use the “installment payment” to alleviate the cash flow. Pressure, in order to reduce the funding pressure brought by the price of upstream raw materials, the battery company has begun to speed up the pace of strategic adjustment..
For reason to choose the choice of reason, high-energy high-ni-nickel ternary batteries in battery materials, reduce cobalt materials become industry consensus, current domestic battery companies have begun to strengthen the research and development and promotion of 622 and 811 three-yuan batteries. Compared with the footsteps of international battery companies. In February 2018, Samsung SDI claims that it has developed low cobalt batteries, “nickel-cobalt-manganese” and “nickel-cobalt-aluminum” techniques will be used in battery technology.
. It is understood that low cobalt batteries have increased the specific gravity of nickel to 90%, while cobalt accounts for only 5%..
Not only that, Samsung SDI is trying to improve technology, ready to completely remove cobalt materials. As the “wind direction” of the new energy car, Samsung SDI has always been the goal of the industry, while Samsung SDI reduces the cobalt content, or will affect the domestic and foreign battery market..
It is worth mentioning that the academician Ouyang Ming, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is more clear. High nickel ternary positive material. “From the market trend, both battery companies and car companies make a positive adjustment plan for high cobalt prices, but data shows that the current cobalt demand is still strong.
Before the new battery is widely used, the cobalt price continues to maintain high level. From a reality, low-cobalt lithium battery materials are currently important in theory, experimental stage, and there are high energy densities, cycle life, safety, reliability and other technical problems to overcome. Recognition of this industry, “Although everyone is exploring battery low-cobaltization, battery technology is still a process of time verification, especially in China, there are many national standards.
. “Simply, the material new process is a long process from the laboratory to mass production..
With the implementation of the new mineral law, the investment cost of the Congo (Gold) has decreased significantly, which reduced the long-term investment of some companies, so that the future of Congo (gold) cobalt production decreased, and the shortage of cobalt industry will be more severe. Long-term perspective, current cobalt industry will still be in a state of supply. Industry analysis, based on good medium and long market demand prospects and resource scarcity, 2018 global new energy vehicles and high-end consumer electronics industry chains have still strong demand for cobalt materials.
Overall, market demand is basically able to support cobalt prices, although there are still many uncertainties in the future, cobalt prices are still expected to rise.