The energy density guide quantization, the trend of lithium iron phosphate “counterattack” can continue?

The energy density guide quantization, the trend of lithium iron phosphate

Wen 丨 company research room, author 丨 Cookies about new energy vehicle power lithium-ion batteries, there have been three yuan lithium-ion batteries and lithium iron battery technology routes, the former has high cost, long battery life, and latter Poor, low cost and high security. In the past, due to new energy policy subsidies, 2017 to 2019, the energy density is three yuan lithium ion batteries become the leading market. However, after 2019, the lithium iron phosphate ion battery has won the market, and the lithium iron phosphate 2021 is expected to be more than three yuan.

. On November 18th, the opinion of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once again improved the requirements for energy density of lithium-ion battery..

The market is expected that the cost advantage will allow the lithium iron phosphate positive material to expand in the medium and low-end, the medium and high passenger cars are dominated by three yuan positive electrode materials, and the three yuan positive electrode will be developed toward the trend of high nickelization.. Among the three-way materials manufacturers such as Rongbai Technology, Changyuan Lenticai, who can stand out in the trend of high nickel? 01.

The rapid development and popularization of new energy vehicles dominated by policy tilt three-yuan lithium materials, the breakthrough in the performance of lithium-ion battery, the decline in cost. As the “heart” of the new energy vehicle, the cost of the power lithium-ion battery accounts for about 40% in the whole vehicle, and its performance is directly determined the safety and battery life of the vehicle..

The development of new energy vehicle power lithium-ion batteries has a lithium-ion battery, fuel power lithium battery, sodium ion battery and other technology routes, and is currently the most widely used is lithium-ion battery.. The lithium-ion battery is important consisting of a material of a positive electrode material, an anode material, a diaphragm, an electrolyte, and a battery housing.

The positive electrode material is important to determine the energy density and safety of the battery, which in turn affects the overall performance of the battery.. In addition, the positive electrode material is about 40% in the cost of lithium ion battery, and the cost also affects the overall cost of the battery, which in turn affects the cost of the vehicle.

. According to the normal electrode material, the lithium ion battery can be divided into a lithium manganese acid lithium-ion battery, a lithium iron-free ion battery, a lithium iron ion battery, a three-dimensional ion battery..

Among them, the ternary lithium-ion battery and lithium iron phosphate ion battery is absolute main force.. my country’s automotive power lithium-ion battery industry innovation alliance data shows that in 1021, my country’s powered lithium-ion battery accumulated loading capacity of 107.

5GWH, of which the amount of loading of the three-yuan battery and lithium iron phosphate ion battery accounted for a total of total loading 99.8%. Each three-dimensional lithium ion battery and lithium iron phosphate ion battery have advantages.

The ternary lithium ion battery consists of different ratios, cobalt, manganese (aluminum) elements, with low temperature resistance, energy density, high cost, high cost, flammable Easy explosion; the advantage of lithium iron phosphate ion battery is the low cost, high cycle life, good thermal stability, high safety performance, but the deficiencies is that there is no low temperature, low energy density, endurance. In the past few years, due to policy subsidies, cost and other factors, the market share of the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery and lithium iron phosphate ion battery. In the early days of the development of new energy vehicles, considering emissions and fuel economy, policy to business car, the safety of lithium iron phosphate, and the advantages of cycle life, etc.

, it makes it rapidly become the first choice for positive, and the market share is far leading.. In 2016, the amount of lithium iron phosphate ion battery in the domestic dynamic lithium-ion battery market is as high as 69%.

. However, in 2017, with the national adjustment of new energy car subsidy policies. After the first time, the battery energy density into subsidized reference indicators, the market position of lithium iron phosphate and three-dimensional ion batteries has changed.

. At that time, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate ion battery is important at 70-80WH / kg, which cannot meet “pure electric passenger vehicle power lithium-ion battery system is not less than 90WH / kg,” higher than 120Wh / kg 1.1 times to subsidize this standard, which causes the market to gradually becomes a higher energy density of ternary lithium ion battery.

In 2018, the market size of lithium iron phosphate ion batteries was first surpassed by three yuan lithium ion batteries.. According to the power lithium ion battery alliance data, in 2018, the domestic power lithium-ion battery accumulated 70.

6GWH, of which the three-yuan battery accounted for 55.5%, and the lithium iron phosphate ion battery decreased to 39.7%.

. In the first quarter of 2020, the market share of the three-yuan lithium-ion battery was raised to 76%. There is a big trend that even some brokerages also believe that the three-yuan materials will lead the positive market.

. However, no one is expected to reverse the lithium-ion battery competition pattern..

02. Substated Saissing Surfaces Lithium iron phosphate ion battery rolls are often commonly consisting of nickel-cobalt manganese, chemical formula is LiniXCoyMN1-X-YO2, model has NCM333, NCM523, NCM622, NCM811. Among them, 333 and 811 and other numbers refer to NCM materials, Ni / CO / Mn ratio ratio.

Compared with NCM333 and NCM811, NCM811 is a high-nickel-cobalt ternary positive material.. Since cobalt is a relatively scarce metal, the price of cobalt is higher, the higher the cobalt content, the cost of the power lithium-ion battery will increase.

By increasing the low price of nickel metal content, reduce the cobalt metal content of the price, not only can improve the energy density, but also reduce the cost of the ternary positive electrode material, so that the three-dimensional positive electrode material gradually towards the high nickel or even the cobalt-free development. , NCM622, NCM811 and NCA (nickel-cobalt aluminum) are mainstream. The rapid development of three yuan positive material after 2017, there has been less subsidy, and since 2019, with the gradual slope of new energy car subsidies, the cost has become a matter of considering the whole vehicle manufacturers.

. With the successful launch of Ningde Times CTP technology and BYD blade battery technology, the low cost, the lithium iron phosphate ion battery of performance improvement has received the favor of the vehicle factory..

According to Hua’an Securities 2021, the use cost of lithium iron phosphate is about 0.08 yuan / WH, which can save 0.15-0.

21 yuan / WH compared to the ternary positive material, corresponding to 65% to 72%.. At the current subsidy policy, such as 55kWh with electricity, the three-yuan battery of the battery is replaced by a lithium iron-free battery, and the cost can drop 0.

46 million yuan to 0.56 million yuan..

Thus, the advantage of the cost is allowed to increase the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate material.. Disclosed, 2020 domestic power lithium ion battery production reached 83.

4 GWH, 2.3% year-on-year. However, the production of lithium iron phosphate ion battery increased by 24.

7% by 34.6GWh, and the three-yuan battery production decreased by 12% for 48.5GWH.

. Since the second half of 2020, the price of the upper reaches of commodity has skyrocketed, and the pressure of the cost of the vehicle is more prominent in 2021. A number of vehicle manufacturers have accelerated the lithium iron phosphate ion battery by three-yuan battery.

. In April 2021, BYD announced that the total pure electric passenger model will be equipped with a lithium iron chip battery..

In July, Masque said that the future Tesla will use 2/3 lithium iron phosphate ion batteries and 1/3 of the ternary battery. In October, Tesla announced that the standard life-fired version of Model3 and Model will all change the lithium iron phosphate ion battery..

In addition, the public, Ford, Mercedes-Benz have clearly used lithium iron ion batteries on entry-level models.. 10 months ago, 10 months, the amount of lithium iron carcass carousel was 316.

4%, and the growth rate of the three-yuan material loading volume was 100.1%..

Although the first 10 months, the amount of three yuan lithium load was 54.1GWH, and the amount of phosphoric acid sticker lithium ion battery was slightly higher, but July 2021, the amount of phosphate lithium-loaded car continued to exceed three months. Lithium lithium, according to this trend, 2021, the market share of phosphate iron, is expected to exceed ternary materials.

In just 4 or 5 years, the powerful lithium-ion battery positive material market competition pattern has occurred twice.. On November 18th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the “Lithium Ion Battery Industry Standard Condition (2021)” (Draft for Comment), further improved the energy density requirements for lithium-ion battery, competition for three yuan lithium and lithium iron phosphate Will continue.

03. Who is a primary machine manufacturer? After commencement of the opinion in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the development of CITIC Securities believes that “in the background of automotive electricity and intelligent, power lithium-ion battery to high energy The pursuit of the density battery material does not stop. The advantage of ternary materials in energy density will continue to be an important choice for the positive material of the passenger vehicle power lithium-ion battery.

“However, CITIC Securities also said in the development report that the introduction of future documents will not cause practical compression on the development of lithium iron phosphate industry, and lithium iron phosphate will still benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries.. On November 19th, BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu said that the battery’s investment problem is that the three yuan or iron phosphate, the cylinder is still square, and the wrong direction may lead to 10 billion yuan to play water, and waste three years time.

Not only is the battery manufacturer to face the challenges and stress of the route, but the upstream positive material manufacturers also face the challenges of choosing tricolithium or lithium iron phosphate. From the species of lithium-ion batteries, the ratio of the three-yuan materials rose from 33.8% in 2016 to 47.

1% in 2018. Since 2019, it has declined year by year, from 2019, 45.9%, fell to 2021 in the first half of the year.

39.2%. The ratio of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 35.

8% in 2018 to 21.9% in 2018. Since 2019, it has increased year by year, from 22.

6% in 2019 to 35.6% in the first half of the year..

Compared with the negative electrode, electrolyte, diaphragm and other industries, the market pattern of the positive electrode industry is more dispersed, and the market share of CR5 has dropped slightly from 38% in 2019 to 37% of 2020.. At present, important companies that produce three-yuan materials include Rongbai Technology, when the promotion technology, long-term luiser, Zhenhua new materials, Xiamen tungsten industry, etc.

. Among them, when the promotion technology and long-term lutenic sects are mainly in conventional ternary materials NCM523, NCM622, high nickel-three-membered materials are relatively low..

In the third quarter of 2021, when the promotion of scientific income was 5.171 billion, 155% increased year-on-year; Changyuan Lithium-revenue revenue was 4.536 billion, up 322.

95% year-on-year. From the market share, the three-yuan materials are still dominated by NCM523..

In 2020, NCM523 has 53% in three-yuan materials, and NCM811 accounts for 22%.. However, from the perspective of electric vehicles to reduce costs and improve the battery life, the dynamic lithium-ion battery three-yuan positive material is a great potential to high nickelization.

. In 2020, conventional ternary NCM523 accounted for 9 percentage points year-on-year, high nickel ternary NCM811 increased by 9 percentage points year-on-year. However, high nickel-ternary materials still have to overcome bottlenecks with high cost and poor safety.

At present, domestic high-nitilian three-yuan material faucet is Rongbai Technology, its NCM811 positive shipments accounted for more than half of the domestic market. In the first half of 2021, Rongbai Technology income was 6.251 billion, up 166.

50% year-on-year.. However, choosing a three-dimensional lithium or lithium iron phosphate, and ultimately still look at the needs of the terminal market.

After the new energy subsidy, some car consumers have the sensitivity of car purchase costs, and the price of lithium iron phosphate ion batteries in the purchase price will undoubtedly affect the choice of vehicle manufacturers, which in turn affects battery manufacturers and positive electrodes. Material manufacturer. After further improving the energy density requirements of lithium-ion battery, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the leading company, the leading company, the company, may occupy the advantage in the future competition.

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