The cycle of the escape: Cobalt is willing to silence after crazy?

The cycle of the escape: Cobalt is willing to silence after crazy?

Like all sudden industries, once the capital is substantial in entering the excess production, the cycle adjustment of the market will come spontaneously.. The lithium cobalt industry on the day before the first two years came to such a crossroad: a complete cycle has ended, and the overcapacity of production has been fixed.

In the new energy battery industry chain, the cobalt is in the upstream of the raw material, and the cobalt is important to use lithium cobaltate and nickel-wateng manganese three-dimensional lithium battery, while lithium can be applied to lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobaltate, three yuan. Battery. Due to the vigorously promotion of new energy vehicles, since 15 years, China has set off a climax of a wave of new energy vehicles.

. As the raw material, lithium, cobalt, and cobalt, which is not open, has a focus of numerous manufacturers..

Tianqi lithium industry, Wu Feng lithium industry, Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry and other listed companies have saved ore, Australian and American lithium mines and cobalt cobalt cobalt mines have become a key target.. The listed company of this major hand pen has also been popular with the market.

Taking Huayou cobalt industry as an example, its share price is 4.04 yuan from the year of 15 years, up to 96.48 yuan (reserved price) in March 18 years, rising close 25 times.

After three years, I finished the full price increase cycle, the upper reaches of the “grab money”, the capital continues to influence, in 2017-2018, the resource continues to expand, and finally forms the overpower of the upstream resource. Overall, between 2015-2018, there was a round of downcast production expansion drive between the new energy in the middle and lower reaches of the new energy, gave a complete price increase cycle..

The stock price trend of the lithium cobalt plate is also following the prices of cobalt to the full cycle.. Tianqi lithium current stock price fell from the peak of 77.

24 yuan to 30 yuan near 30 yuan, the stock price fell more than 60%; Huawager cobalt industry fell from 96.64 yuan to 30 yuan, falling nearly 70%. While supplying excess, the price reduction of lithium cobalt raw materials has been significantly reduced, and the price of downstream power lithium battery is also declined.

The price of lithium iron phosphate has fallen from 2.8 yuan to the current 1.1 yuan; the ternary battery has fallen from 3 yuan Near 1.

2 yuan. The profit level of the whole industry chain has fallen sharply. In 17, the middle of the industry chain is first supported, so that Rare Wo can have this extreme phenomenon of more than 20 billion.

. The price continues to fall, the supply level continues: 2018 Jianeng cobalt production increased by 54% year-on-year to 42,000 tons, of which Mutanda production is 27,300 tons, 3400 tons year-on-year. Jianeng can 199,000 tons in 2019.

It is expected that cobalt consumption in 2019 in 2019 is only 50,000 tons.. In other words, the yield of this cobalt giant has made the global market in absolute supply.

. The trend of future cobalt prices will determine the production policy of Jianeng, and at least 2020, the excess supply of cobalt ore will not change. The situation of lithium is also similar.

Due to the 2016-2017 lithium mine project on the horse, the next two or three years will be a large-scale amount of low-cost salt lake and lithium glow production in the next two or three years, the supply will be significantly higher than the growth rate of demand. It is expected that since 2018, the difference between supply and demand will continue to expand. Until 2022, the supply is almost twice as demand, and then this situation may have inversions.

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