Insufficient high-end yield, excessive low output, dynamic lithium battery production problem and suggestion

Insufficient high-end yield, excessive low output, dynamic lithium battery production problem and suggestion

The dynamic lithium battery industry has low-output production rate, low high-end production, excess low-end yield, becoming an obstacle to the healthy development of the industry.. Causes of this problem and the driving use of policy subsidies, excessive expansion, blind investment, etc.

. The current foreign stock ratio is gradually released, and the international competition is white and hot. The excess of structural production will affect the improvement of my country’s power lithium battery core competitiveness, and the contradiction between the industrial chain is not coordinated.

Side of the low-end excess production, improve the quality of the industry, and think deeply. I. my country’s power lithium battery production status is currently in my country’s power lithium battery industry excessive structural output, important performance in the following aspects.

1. Industry-output utilization rate low-yield utilization is the ratio of actual output and potential production (excluding construction, planning project), and European and American days, etc., the production rate is less than 78%, and the excess of industrial production is.

In 2017, the total output of my country’s powered lithium-ion battery reached 185GWH, and the effective output of cargo advice and continued to choose from is about 115GWH, and the actual production is about 44.62GWH, calculated by actual yield and effective production, yield utilization 38.8 %.

In 2016, the total output is 90GWH2, the effective production is about 60 g wh2, the yield is 30.8GWH4, and the yield utilization is 51.3%.

. The overall yield utilization of the dynamic lithium-ion battery has been less than 78% in two years. Decreased to 40% in 2017, that is, the overall output excess of the industry.

2. High-end production is not enough to watch the company’s situation, and have exposed the short-term production problem in the leading company..

The high-end and low ends of production are relatively, generally according to the quality of the power lithium battery product, the production technology level, the company’s comprehensive strength, market share, the application area, is usually the first choice for mainstream car companies.. The market demand for high-end production is increasing, and it can be description from the amount of installation.

. In 2017, the first 10 power lithium battery companies in my country reached 26.7GWH, the market share was 73.

6%, and the first half of 2018 rose to about 85%.. Domestic mainstream dynamic lithium battery companies take CATL, BYD, is a centralized camp of high-end production, contributing more than 70% of the installed demand in the industry.

. Among them, the market share of the leader CATL and BYD is increased from 45.5% in 2017 to 60.

7% in the first half of 2018.. The leading company is in front of the battery, and the high-end production is insufficient.

. CATL pointed out that “existing production cannot meet the potential market demand”, and intend to use more than 60% of funds to expand; BYD explains the landscape of the power lithium battery in the 2017 shareholder meeting. And stepping on the expansion of the lithium iron battery production line and Qinghai dynamic lithium battery production line.

3. There are more than 105 dynamic lithium battery companies in my country, and 95 companies have a total of approximately 15% of the market demand, but accounting for about 55% of industry production..

Most of the outputs are low-end yields, which are generally technically, talents, capital accumulation. The production of small and medium-sized battery companies, due to technical level, quality quality in the vehicle power requirements, it is difficult to be used by car companies, so there are some flows Low-speed electric vehicle, electricity balancing car, electric tool and other markets. Low-end yield has lowered the industry’s production utilization.

According to the domestic mainstream dynamic lithium battery company’s yield utilization and market share, the production utilization rate of SMEs is only about 10%, far below the industry average. Domestic mainstream dynamic lithium battery company production rate 2. November 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced “Automobile Power Lithium Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2017)” (Draft for Comment), requiring lithium-ion power lithium battery monomers, the annual output of lithium-ion power lithium battery unit is not less than 8GWH, only BYD, CATL two satisfied The hard requirements of production, so companies have begun to expand production.

Subsequently, the 2012 March 4th Party has introduced the “Method of Promoting the Development Action of the Automobile Power Lithium Battery Industry”, and proposed that the total output of the industry is 100GWH, forming a production and sales scale above 40GWH, and the leading company with international competitiveness.. Although the policy purpose is to improve the competitiveness of the power lithium battery industry, cultivate the influential battery leader, eliminate the backward production of “small, scattered, chaos”, but it is not possible to prevent the production of the power lithium battery company.

. In addition, the new energy automotive industry has begun to launch a subsidy policy from the beginning of the “Ten City” in 2009, and the central and localities have been vigorously launched a subsidy policy, including huge financial subsidies, and local governments in investment promotion, land, taxation. Very strong support, the rapid rise of new energy vehicles sales and investment boom has vigorously stimulated the development of relevant companies on the industry chain.

The power lithium battery is an important part of the cost of vehicle, and therefore, in the process of rapid expansion of new energy industrial investment, a large number of market funds flow into the field of power lithium battery, resulting in the fire of the expansion of the whole industry.. 2, excessive production, exceeding the blind chase development of market demand “one,” investment overheat, the company expansion overheat, ultimately leading to market demand.

According to the development of 2 million new energy vehicles in my country’s new energy vehicles, the 2020 market demand for power lithium batteries is about 100GWH.. As of 2017, the planning production of the power lithium battery reached 228GWH, which is twice that of 2020 demand.

. The company’s crazy expansion of the company caused the yield of production, and on the other hand, the industry may fall into “production expansion – market supply is greater than seeking – profit space decrease – expansion to improve scale reduction cost” malignant circulation. Especially the two pressures of the subsidy, the price increase of the upstream raw materials, the blind expansion will only exacerbate the industrial production utilization rate.

3. Under inefficient and invalid investment, low-end output is emerging and invalid investment in the capacity lithium battery industry accumulating, causing a large number of production of unusual competitiveness or not actually putting production, resulting in low-end output..

There are two aspects: First, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. In 2015, the powerful lithium battery has an unsatisfactory wind wave, so that investors and companies use short sexual results indicators such as production and delivery capacity as investment, with production scale as Guide; Second, the power lithium battery technology route is in iterative development, and a large amount of funds are concentrated in production and neglect the investment of technological innovation, quality improvement. Investment solidification makes new production lines to keep up with technology development, which is invalid or low end Yield.

4. Industry competition is intensified, and the company has intensified the Matthew effect of the power lithium battery industry through expansion, from domestic and foreign competitive pressure coexistence. First, domestic mainstream companies and car enterprises form a strategic partnership, and gradually escape the market share, small and medium-sized companies have more difficulty in obtaining orders.

. Second, with the limit of foreign shares, Japan and South Korea leading battery companies enter my country’s high-end power lithium battery market. Third, my country’s leading company has begun the internationalization process, and CATL has received orders in Germany, the United States and other country giants and prepares the establishment of German Factory.

. Power lithium battery companies have highlighted in numerous competitors, one of which is an expansion. The necessary production scale can make the battery company reduce production costs, improve the bargaining capacity of the vehicle, and get more profit space.

. Expansion is also a shortcut to the company seizes the market share..

According to statistics, in 2017, new production is 95GWH. In 2018, new production is expected to be 60-65GWH, and the growth rate of production expansion is slow..

The current expansion forces are important from three aspects: First, the yield has been leading leading company, such as BYD, CATL, is a new incremental group in production; Second, new people entering the power lithium battery industry after 2016, such as Ruilung Energy, Tafier, Huading National United King, etc.. The industrial expansion is moving from policy-driven to market.

The company’s production layout is no longer limited to local resources, but the development of market demand, supporting car enterprises and battery technology.. The expansion plan of domestic mainstream dynamic lithium battery company, the impact of excess structural output on the dynamic lithium battery industry 1.

First, a large amount of funds, talent resources have been concentrated on yield expansion, affecting the investment of technology research and development, and tall product quality and performance improvement for the pursuit of production. The second is that in the future, there will be more energy, the government, the market, and the company, etc., the government, the market, and the company will need a series of reforms in the investment management and regulation, supervision system reform, access mechanism, company collaboration and competition mechanism.

Measures must cause the impact of technological innovation and intelligent level improvement. At present, Japanese Panasonic claims that my country’s establishment of a battery factory, South Korea Samsung SDI, LGChem, aiming at our country’s exiting subsidies, and foreign-funded advanced companies have very competitive in high-end power lithium battery market..

2, delaying technology innovation, Japan, South Korea is in terms of international leading level in the battery sector, the company has less, and has its advantages, while forming a strategic cooperation with car companies, to improve the battery technology level, reduce costs for cultivating core competition Force’s goal. On the contrary, my country’s battery industry currently has a blind expansion of production, overall, more, tired, chaos, and leading company in product technology, cost management, production management system, less international leading level, small and medium-sized company Among the difficulties of scale, the excess production caused by blind expansion, causing capital waste, lack of research and development, lack of talents. Technological innovation is precisely the support of the three elements of funds, research and development, and talents.

How to resolve excess production has become the urgentity of the dynamic lithium battery industry towards technology-oriented development path. 3. Recycling pressure is blindly expanding, causing excess low-end output, low-end batteries invested in the market in terms of technical performance, consistency, and durability, meaning that my country’s dynamic lithium battery has increased, retired quality discrete Da Da, the difficulty of recycling is increased.

At present, my country’s dynamic lithium battery recycling industry has not yet formed, the detection standard is uncertain, the ladder utilization economics and low resource utilization are low, and the low-end output is bound to cause the burden on the recycling industry.. In addition, the development cycle between the upstream and downstream of the industry has no synchronization, and the production line of the vehicle company is generally 1.

5-2 years, the production line of the power lithium battery company is about 5 years, and upstream minerals The construction cycle of resources involves exploration and mining sections, often take longer construction time, even 10 years, intermediate power lithium battery companies blindly expand will break and upstream, and downstream supply and demand balance, plus the industrial chain is not coordinated, no Balance problem. Fourth, the relevant recommendations of the healthy development of the dynamic lithium battery industry 1. Strengthen production warning, strengthen safety supervision, and true yield information help investors and company rationally decisions, can establish production announcements and early warning mechanisms, by government agencies or The tripartite non-profit organization conducts information verification and timely announcement, eliminating the “rotten” project and “accounting” behavior, focusing on yield utilization and production changes.

From the protection of consumer benefits, strengthen the supervision of illegal battery products, companies with battery quality safety issues track investigations, and implement effective punishment measures. 2. Encourage market-complicated mergers and mergers to eliminate low-end production, the market will play key uses, lack of technology, large-scale, form-dispersed companies lack competitiveness, naturally eliminated under the market’s survival phase.

. With the playback of the market mechanism, the merger and restructuring between the company will speed up the steps. The company’s concentration and competitiveness are further improved.

. 3, development center of development of expansion of expansion and highlighting the development strategy of the current power lithium battery mainstream company is no longer yield expansion, but should optimize production, through core technological innovation and intelligent level improvement Quarantine, fundamentally enhance competitiveness. my country’s power lithium battery overall technology level is still gap compared to Japan and South Korea’s advanced companies.

Japan Panasonic is TSLA’s specific supplier, a 21700NCA ternary lithium ion battery, monomer energy density 300Wh / kg, the cost is 1 yuan / WH, basically reached my country’s 2020 development goals. And the vehicle company puts higher demands, cycle life, safety, and safety of dynamic lithium battery performance, and the improvement of the performance of the dynamic lithium battery..

Therefore, the company should increase support for basic research, accelerate the transformation of research results, attach importance to the training of talents, strengthen the development of production and political political political affairs, and use technology innovation to high-end sectors to create competitive advantages.. 4, improve the level of intelligent manufacturing, the improvement of the promotion of the lithium battery, yield optimization is critical, my country’s power lithium battery industry will win in “quantity”, the production is large, but the quality is not as good as Japan, especially consistent There is still a big gap; in the second, the power lithium battery industry belongs to manufacturing categories, intelligent manufacturing can help quality precision control, and reduce production costs.

According to the statistics of “Zhizhong Research”, the automatic production line of the international leader company is about 85%. The automation rate of the domestic first-line company is less than 60%, and the second-third line company is less than 30%; the international manufacturing pass rate is 90%, while China Just 70% -80%. Dynamic lithium battery intelligent manufacturing is based on the Internet-based interconnection interoperability system, reaching the “Industrial 4.

0″ level. Enhance intelligence, information, and automation levels are a systematic project, still need to continue to invest in companies and the government..

5. Pay attention to the strategic layout, the key lithium cobalt resources and key materials, due to the regional characteristics of mineral resources distribution, the key direction of the power lithium battery company is. The second is to cooperate with downstream and vehicle companies, fully understand the needs and requirements of the supporting battery, improve production utilization and improve battery products.

. The third is to attach importance to the link and recycling of the dynamic lithium battery ladder as soon as possible, and the closed-loop ecosystem of the battery industry chain is also the responsibility of the power lithium battery company to help protect national resource safety and environmental safety.

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