Recently, several electric vehicles spontaneous incomplete events and media reports Ningde or temporarily slow 811 route, trigger market attention, we have been investigated, combined with industrial chain data, and give the following analysis: Conclusion: 811 direction has no change, including Ningde The focus of the battery giants at home and abroad 1. Industrial chain insists on the 811 direction, high energy density has not changed, not only Ningde, LG and other battery giants are also vigorously promoted. 2, the public, Wei, Xiaopeng, etc.
There is no change in the order of Ningde (it is also an increase in 1 line), and the problem of Guangzhou Automobile may be in the Pack design instead of Ningde’s battery.. 4, from the technical layer, lithium iron phosphate is also a kind of lithium-ion battery.
Once the energy density of lithium iron phosphate is raised, theoretically after the level of the current 811, theoretically smaller. 5, the blade battery is not the first in BYD, but CATL. I.
Volkswagen, Wei, Xiaopeng, etc., is very firm to Ningde 811. At this time, a number of media exposed the old news of Guangqi spontaneously before 3 months, and did not rule out the business attack behavior of Ningde.
. 2, the current attitude towards 811: In addition to Guangzhou, other 811 large users do not change the technical method to plan the attitude of overseas car companies to 811: domestic MEB has 811 methods, BMW also has export samples, will have demonstrations Sexual use. Domestic Xiaopeng (1- July accumulated loading 0.
5GWh, 0.7 million cars), 蔚 来, the domestic mass Meb (start mass production in October) also uses 811 method. 3, before, Guangzhou Aions, had a few spontaneous combustion, and the problem of spontaneous self-ignition in the survey: Guangzhou has several pure electric vehicles spontaneously, it is expected to be an important part of the core, including metal particles inside, leading to piercing The diaphragm causes fire, which does not matter for 8-series materials.
. The recent self-ignition issues are still confirmed; The problem has been resolved after the production line is repaired..
2019 is also a large-scale recall problem in the ES8 in 2019, is also a PACK design (Ningde supplies the battery, it is sap). Pack involves BMS cooperation development design and supply chain procurement, Ningde NCM811 battery has proved his product forces, but Guangqi’s Pack or design problem, this is the reason for recent spontaneous combustion. 5.
It is expected that Aions 811 battery does not have a recall module Pack and BMS matching problem. This responsibility is generally in car enterprises; the battery has a strong physical impact, which belongs to an extreme case..
6, the battery pack has various auxiliary facilities, a heat dissipation system, these systems are well designed, there is no design defect, it is the key to affecting a pure electric car will not spontaneously. Second, CATL’s NCM811 production and sales customers: 1, data shows that the Catlncm811 production line is 0.71, 0.
64, 0.72, 0.98, 1.
09GWh, 0.45GWH, September, in September; Some maintenance reductions in the line (5, in June) 2 weeks, but other car enterprise orders NCM811 demand continues to rise. 2, from 1 to July this year 811 battery installed volume: 2.
3GWH. 3,811 Battery Shipping Expected: It is expected that 7GWH is expected to be reduced in the early 10GWH, which is expected to impact 12GWH in 2021, and shipments will continue to improve..
4, NCM811 Customer: The top five customers are Guangqi Chuanqi, Xiaopeng, Brilliance BMW, Guangzhou Automobile Toyota, Weima, with a total of 79%. From the NCM811 installed vehicle data, the Guangzhou Auto passed the car is 11,000 vehicles from July, and July Xiaopeng is 0.7 million.
Xiaopeng’s body is expected to exceed GAC.. In addition to supply domestic, Ningde simultaneously supplies overseas NCM811 products.
Third, CATL technology route: 1. The blade battery is not the first in BYD, but the CATL current market is too concerned with the blade battery, but the battery technology improves the core in the battery material..
In fact, the blade battery is not the first in BYD, instead of the CATL 2016 amount of CTP structural innovation concept, but Ningde has chosen to produce the best in the CTP structure innovation.. Ningde R & D fees 1/3 investment in the current system, 2/3 investment into the next generation of material system research.
Ningde and TSLA’s technical team have long since communicated docking, Ningde’s supply hours are probably the second half of this year.. Ningde has the most advanced products in lithium iron phosphate and three yuan.
The supply is not limited to lithium iron phosphate or three yuan. The specific supplies depends on market demand 2. Ningde short-term development technology route: 2020 focus on three yuan 8112021 focused on carbonilane-silicon negative 2022 focus on phosphate phosphate ferrite 2023 focus on cobalt battery: cobalt-free battery is cobalt, adding manganese elements, gauge to increase to 300mAh / g, voltage reaches 4.
7V, large Improve energy density, reduce cost. 3. Ningde long-term development technology route: full solid state battery: current Ningde Solid State Battery Room Temperature Circulation More than 900 times, attenuation 10%, industry leader.
There is no cobalt high voltage battery: the specific progress is not unfold, but Ningde has its own “cobalt” battery technology reserves, and the development progress is progressing smoothly.. No dilute metal: the battery that eliminates cobalt and nickel-rare metals, the specific progress is not expounded.
Fourth, the middle upstream industry chain: 811 production is normal, verify that Ningde 811 shipments are normal 1, the positive pole – Rongbai Technology: As the core supplier of Ningde 811 positive material, the 5-August production is steadily improved, 0.14, 0.14, 0.
2, 0.23 million tons. Ningde is steadily improving the demand for 811 positive material materials.
2, positive technology direction: high nickel (NCM811, NCM90505); high voltage (current circulating voltage 3.7V); single crystal; it is the three major development directions we believe that the future of positive material, these three major direction does not conflict. In addition, penetration of high nickel in consumer lithium electricity will continue.
V. Overall conclusions: 1. Technical level, high ratio energy-powered lithium battery is the eternal pursuit of new energy vehicles, the power lithium battery high nickel 811 is not changed, LG chemistry will also start promotion 811.
Individual car enterprises battery short time installed change does not affect industry technology progress, optimistic about CATL in new technology layout advantages. 2, the blade battery is not the first in BYD, but CATL. A short-time car company is required to consider product performance, price, cost and other factors, but high nickel + high voltage direction is determined, long-term optimistic CATL.