Flour is more expensive than bread, it is difficult to solve

Flour is more expensive than bread, it is difficult to solve

On April 4, the official website of the Securities Regulatory Commission announced the 15th National Development Committee 2018, the audit results notice notified, and the notification shows that CATL is first obtained. This means that after the update of the prospectus is only 24 days, this domestic power lithium battery leader has been successful, and it has become a member of the A-share listed company..

Its speed, even more than 36 days of Fujikold, Creating the first share of A-share will. However, the “unicorn” company like CATL is not much like CATL..

Nowadays, the prices of upstream raw materials have risen sharply, and the vehicle enterprises strictly compress the battery cost industry, most of the dynamic lithium battery companies have no better. For example, sales have risen, net profit is declining; the battery is sold, but it is difficult to recover, leading to tight examples, in the battery industry..

CATL can create such a miracle, naturally there are two “brush”. Its prospectus shows that the entire 2017 CATL sales power lithium battery 11.84GWH, beyond Panasonic.

Realizing operating income of 19997 billion, hometributive company’s net profit of 3972 million yuan, profit volume has exceeded 97% of A-share listed companies. From the ratio of funds and equals, CATL has exceeded 130 billion yuan..

“Currently, the industry flour has occurred when the price of the industry is expensive, and the advanced companies that attach importance to technological innovation are difficult to recover R & D costs, and profitability is very difficult.. Although the output of the power lithium battery market is continuously expanding, the overall market has risen rapidly, but the profits of advanced companies have declined, and my country’s dynamic lithium battery seems to be bright, in fact, the overall profit difficulties.

“Referral to the status quo of the dynamic lithium battery industry, Wu Mengtao, general manager of Tianjin Bamo. Flour Powder Byderey, the company’s profits have fallen in recent years, my country’s electric vehicle market share has gradually improved, accounting for 50% of the entire global market..

The increase in sales of new energy vehicles has driven the rapid development of the domestic lithium-ion battery industry, but there is also an embarrassing problem. The prices of raw materials upstream have risen sharply..

It is understood that in 2015, the price of lithium carbonate is 38,000 / ton, and the average price of battery-grade carbonate in the first quarter of 2018 is 158,000 yuan / ton, which has skyrocketed several times.. Also accompanying the rise of the new energy passenger car market, the raw materials required by the three-yuan battery continue the rise momentum of the battery-grade carbonate.

At the end of 2015, the price of cobalt was also maintained at a low level of 205,000 yuan / ton, and by April 17, 2018, the price of cobalt has soared to 6.58 million yuan / ton, compared to lithium carbonate, it is not inferior..

Industry estimation, with the rise of the passenger car market, there is still a rising space. Due to the rise in raw material, the current material material in power lithium battery has reached 50%..

And usually, this accounting should be around 30% -40%. “On the current situation, the cost of nickel, cobalt, and manganese has accounted for more than 90% of the positive material cost, and it is extremely abnormal to the industry..

“Positive Material Manufacturer Beijing Dangli Technology Co., Ltd. General Manager Li Jianzhong publicly.

According to research institutions, my country’s power lithium battery output value reached 72.5 billion yuan in 2017, up 12% year-on-year, far below 60% of growth in 2016..

However, my country’s power lithium battery four key materials (positive materials, negative electrode materials, separators, and electrolyte) have reached 61 billion yuan last year, up 62% year-on-year.. Among them, the output value of the positive electrode material is up to 71.

5%, and its output value is also the largest.. The distortion of the prices of the positive electrode material, leading to the distribution of the industrial chain profit distribution, the output of the battery segment continues to make, and the upstream raw material company earns a lot of money.

With the 2017 new energy car subsidy policy adjustment, domestic power lithium battery prices have declined by 20%, and the industry background leads to the profitability of dynamic lithium batteries is adversely affected.. The industry’s estimated market profit will drop by about 20% from 30% last year.

. From the 2017 annual performance report published by relevant listed companies, companies in the power lithium battery industry have declined in a minority. The first quarter of this year, the power lithium battery industry continues to continue the trend of profit last year.

From the first quarter report in 2018, it can be seen that the net profit of some mainstream power lithium batteries has declined.. Including BYD, Rare Wo, Swallow Technology, Nandu Power, DFO.

The cost pressure caused by the rise of upstream raw materials, April 27, the Swalls Technology (002684) announced the 2018 first quarter. According to the financial report, the Lion Technology has achieved a business income of 601 billion yuan in January this year. It has also increased by 34.

68% year-on-year; the net profit of shareholders attributable to listed company is 211.316 million yuan, up 504.76% year-on-year; but the net profit of non-regular profit and loss is -62468 million yuan, large reduction of 393.

97%. Hidden Chi Chi, the domestic power lithium battery and new energy car, although the new energy car sales champion in 2017, but poor performance in profits. According to BYD, the first quarter of 2018 is announced in the report period, BYD achieves operating income of 23.

738 billion yuan, an increase of 17.54% compared to the same period of the previous year; the net profit is 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline in 0.

29 100 million yuan, big fell more than 173%. In contrast, the rendering of the Rilevo can be doubled..

Denorvo will mentioned in the first quarter-first quarter-first quarter-first quarterly released in the previous 2018, the company’s general camhouse has received 1117 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 59.88%; the net profit from the shareholders of listed companies – 319 million yuan, year-on-year Change -225.86%.

Rilevo can say that the company’s loss has increased significantly, due to the decrease in the decrease of the Subderection, and the product gross profit margin decreased.. The scale-by-scale cost-hwed industry shuffling speed profit is the eternal goal pursued, but from this year’s dynamic lithium battery company’s overall performance, most companies are deeply embarrassed, and how to reduce cost and improve profitability is also everyone.

Topic. “The decrease in battery cost is bound to reduce costs from various materials. From various aspects such as energy, raw materials, the cost reduction preparation.

Yang Bo, General Manager of Blue Bai Pathfinder Co., Ltd..

However, in recent recent, sending a dismisory price of raw materials seems to be too reluctant, and the scale reduction cost has become an effective way.. Tian Han, Chairman, Times High-class chairman, said that the company has a lot of costs, but the most important thing is to be formed on scale.

. “The company should adhere to long-term technical investment, considering scale production, and improve the benefits..

At the same time, upstream formation cooperation and win-win, form a continuous benign circulation “. In order to deal with the pressure of the price of the power lithium battery and the rising raw material cost, mainstream power lithium battery companies have selected to reduce production costs by expanding production scale..

According to the production expansion plan of everyone, it is expected that the production of CATL’s lithium-ion battery by 2020 will increase from 17.09GWH in 2017 to 50GWH; BYD power lithium battery production will be upgraded from 16GWH in 2017 to 39GWH, etc..

Industry insiders are also worried that the expansion of battery production may bring overflowing crisis. Related data show that the effective output of the power lithium battery industry as of the end of 2017 is approximately 115GWH, but the full-year installed capacity in 2017 is only 37GWh, the yield utilization is 35%, there is a risk of excess structural yield. It is estimated that by 2018, the production utilization rate of the dynamic lithium battery industry will continue to decline, and the medium and low-end yields face phase-out and integration.

. From CATL’s previously disclosed prospectus, in 2017, the company’s lithium-ion battery production was 17.08GWh, the actual production was 12.

54%, and the yield utilization was 75.54%..

However, compared to this number and 2016 have fallen nearly 17 percentage points; in addition, BYD last year’s lithium-ion battery production is 16GWH, and its installed volume is only 5.66GWH, and the product utilization rate is not optimistic..

Industry data shows that the production utilization rate of small and medium battery factories is only 15% or even less. Lower yield utilization is accompanied by excess of structural yield, also brings unmistive resistance to the scale expansion of the relevant power lithium battery company..

From this point of view, it is not applicable to all power lithium batteries.. At the same time, as the power lithium battery industry is promoted, CATL, BYD, Guoxuan High-class, etc.

Ranking battery companies have firmly grasp the life pulse of the development of the dynamic lithium battery industry.. According to the data, there are 57 car companies in March this year to achieve 2.

19GWH, of which CATL is ranked first, accounting for 50.33%..

In March last year, the CATL installed capacity is only 258.48mWh, up to 3 times year-on-year; the second BYD is 411.9mWh, accounting for 18.

83%; Guoxuan’s high school is ranked third in 193.64mWh, the market share accounts for 8.85 %, Three companies market accounts for more than 78%.

Review the first quarter of this year, the new energy vehicle installed volume is 4.54GWH, which rises by 182.67% year-on-year.

. The top three companies have accounted for more than 70% of the market share, and the top three companies in the same period last year have just over 50%..

At the same time, the market share of the previous 20 companies ranked first in the first quarter of this year is more than 97%.. This also means that the 20th company is only 3% of the market cake, which is 13.

98% last year.. In such a context, mainstream power lithium battery companies will reduce costs through scale, gradually escalate the market share through technical advantages, and medium and low-end output will face the risk of shuffling out.

. From the related data, it can be seen that in 2016, the power lithium battery of the recommended directory model is from 109 battery companies, and the number of power lithium battery companies with the 2017 recommended model catalog is 76, which reduces more than 33..

Nowadays, CATL will succeed in “unicorn”, BYD open industry chain closed-loop-selling battery, will lead to speed-up speed of lithium battery industries. Industry insiders estimated that by 2020 movement lithium battery companies will dropped from 90 in 2017 to 20. Fang Jianhua, former President of Guoxuan High-Tech, said that the power lithium battery company eliminated speed, and the power lithium battery company or eliminated by more than 2020.


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