We understand that the price of new energy cars is expensive, battery costs occupy a large proportion of vehicle. The lithium-ion battery performance cannot be doubled every 18 months performance like the chip..
However, lithium-ion batteries also have their own Moore Laws – although there is no such block without chip performance, it is also constantly improving energy density and reduces manufacturing costs every year.. So the energy density and cost of the lithium-ion battery have the bottom line? With the development of technology, what is the extent that the cost and performance can develop after 2020? The process of data interpretation and analysis may be somewhat boring, suspected of cumbersome classmates can directly skip the process to read the conclusion.
As can be seen from CATL’s prospectus, the sales price of power lithium batteries has declined year by 2280 yuan / kWh, and as of the raised stock production (2020) can drop to 860 yuan / kW.. In other words, from 2015 to 2020, the price of the battery will continue to fall.
. In addition, gross profit margins and net interest rates will continue to fall..
But this does not mean that the company’s profitability is weakened. After achieving a larger production and operation, it reduces the cost of sharing a single product, so that some gross profit margins can be achieved to change market competitiveness..
About lithium-ion batteries. From the data since 2014, the cost of labor costs and manufacturing costs is due to the improvement of production efficiency, and contributes to reduce product costs..
The reduction in material costs is benefited from the large-scale mining and manufacturing of raw materials.. From the entire industrial chain, PACK (battery pack) cost With the continuous rise in the new energy electric vehicle market, the market demand continues to expand, so that the scale production is displayed, while the battery pack is lowered, the battery pack is reduced.
Cost has also achieved a decline in year by year. Electrode materials, diaphragms, and electrolyte materials are also declining with the size of the industry. From the total cost, from 2014 to 2020, the average annual battery cost has reached 15.
9%.. Among them, the maximum decline in 2016-2017, the decline reached 32%.
The root cause of cost reduction, the improvement of energy density improvement and production efficiency. The former is a dividend that technology has been developed, and the latter is the development of the market, so that the intensification, scale production has become reality, thus achieving production efficiency..
■ Conclusion Analysis from 2017 109WH / kg year to 2020, energy density will increase to 160Wh / kg. From this rising ratio, basically maintained 12% annually. This is anastomically at the time of the main factory for strategic planning.
From the 1990s, since the lithium-ion battery has achieved marketization, the energy density improvement efficiency has always been around 12% per year.. This is the molar law in the lithium-ion battery industry, so how much the annual energy density improvement rate can pre-examine the bonus of the energy density improvement in the next few years.
Regarding users who are interested in buying new energy vehicles, they can also use this incremental rate to calculate the energy density of the battery that you can get in your own car.. So by 2020, the pure electric vehicle life will be generally more than 500 kilometers, and the cost will further decrease.
Some high-end models are expected to exceed 800 kilometers of endurance mileage.. From the perspective of cost decline, the material cost is important in 2017.
. From 2018 to 2020 trend analysis, the possibility of decline in important cost is still concentrated in manufacturing costs and labor costs. Therefore, the market is very important, the reduction in manufacturing costs and labor costs should be based on the continued rise in market demand.
. Only the larger market size is, production and manufacturing efficiency can be improved, gaining lower cost. Therefore, users can get benefits, important concentration of energy density improvement in battery technology and production efficiency increase in market scale.
I believe that with the continuous advancement of national policies, after 2020, pure electric cars can achieve comparable and fuel-fuel vehicles, whether it is a battery life, and a commission, and the era of electric cars and fuel vehicles and drive will be a dream.