Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized “New Energy Automotive Industry Development Plan (2021-12035)” to prepare work boot will, stir the lithium-ion battery industry one pool spring water. Despite the surplus of overcapacity, the desire of lithium-e-investment under capital is still completely released..
A investment boom is swept in China. Under the impulse, the industry is expected to be shaped like the industry..
How to prevent “one rider” invested in the industry again. “Investing overheat” to “Overcome” “The smell of capital is always sensitive, but the expression of ‘investment override” is not necessarily accurate. In the market environment, the large-scale influx of capital is unable to prevent in any of the early stage of the ‘Chaoyang Industry.
. In the long run, the influx of capital will also promote the development of the industry..
Although investment is not ‘surplus’, it will appear ‘overheat’ performance. “Ai Rui Consulting Industry Analyst Wang Gong. “In fact, and the most relevant field of lithium-ion battery industry related to new energy vehicles is a powered lithium battery industry, and the power lithium battery is also not a baby in the development matrix.
. “Wang Jie pointed out that according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, my country’s new energy automotive industry power lithium battery installed capacity is 56.89GWH, compared to the 2012 installed capacity of 1GWH, my country has developed into the world’s largest new energy car market.
At present, the power lithium battery company represented by CATL, BYD, has a certain international competitiveness.. It is undeniable that “yield excess surplus” in shipments is much larger than the amount of installed.
. Take the 2018 year in the past, my country’s power lithium battery industry shipments reached 65GWH, and the inventory is stressed..
Wang Gan added. In addition, from production utilization, it is also an important reason for “excess yield”..
According to data, since 2015, the production utilization rate of my country’s dynamic lithium-ion battery industry continued to decrease. The production utilization rate of the industry in 2017 is only 31.3%, and the yield utilization rate in 2018 is approximately 29.
5%, and the industrial output is outstanding. According to data, by 2020, 15 large and medium-sized powered lithium battery production companies such as CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan’s high school will be close to 300GWH. It is three times that of 2020 new energy vehicle power lithium battery demand.
. Analysis points out: “On the one hand, government intervention, admission threshold increase, huge subsidies attract large investments. The lithium-ion battery industry is affected by policy.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (2017) (2017) “(2017)” (2017) “(2017)” (2017) “(Draft) is required to require lithium-ion power lithium battery monomer. 8GWH, forcing most lithium-ion batteries to expand production. On the other hand, the new energy automotive industry has a series of subsidies and offers from the central to the local, attracting a large amount of funds to enter the new energy vehicle supporting area, and the core of the power lithium battery is naturally natural.
exception. “” In addition, competition intensifies, expansion to pursue scale benefits. “Jiang Wangyue said that my country’s power lithium battery industry is fierce competition.
On the one hand, my country has gradually released the proportion of enterprises in the joint venture capital, exacerbating the market competition; on the other hand, with the gradual slope of policy subsidies, the power lithium battery market is in the “policy orientation” transformation. Power lithium battery companies have highlighted in numerous competitors, one of which is an expansion. The necessary production scale can make the battery company reduce production costs, improve the bargaining capacity of the vehicle, to get a larger profit space, expansion is also the shortcut to the company seizes the market share.
. Jiang Wangyue said. Wang Jie pointed out that the direct cause of “overproduction” is the confidence of various capitals “electricity” trend on automobiles and travel industries.
The investment in the capital has triggered the “excess production” results and “investment overheat”.. Although the share of new energy vehicles is constantly expanding, the limitations of new energy vehicles itself still make it difficult to “positive confrontation” in a short period of time, and its limited market scale is difficult to digest a large amount of power lithium battery production.
. “The policy is greatly attractive to capital..
“Wang Gong said that multi-factor superposition makes the capital in the power lithium battery industry continue to add code. Effective geometry? The “excess yield” in the lithium-ion battery industry will have a certain impact on the development of future industries..
First, it will delay the technological innovation and the new industry burden will. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that lithium-ion batteries belong to the intensive industry of funds, inventory, resend funds, research and development, and talents in technology innovation..
At present, my country’s lithium-ion battery industry has a serious output, overall, “more, scattered, chaos” situation, leading company in product technology, cost management, production management system can achieve international leading level, small and medium-sized company in scale In the trouble, the excess production caused by blind expansion, causing capital waste, lack of research and development, lack of talent, not conducive to lithium-ion battery technology innovation. Second, acceleration company elimination. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that due to the excess of low-end production in the industry, most of the small and medium-sized companies are stronger, and they cannot meet high-end demand.
The dynamic lithium battery order is suddenly reduced. The market is extruded, and the company’s economic benefits have declined. In particular, with the continuous delivery of lithium-ion battery production in 2018-12020, the differentiation of yield utilization will continue to be intended, which is accompanied by the comprehensive differentiation of the profitability of lithium-ion batteries, and the less profitability and even loss of small and medium-sized manufacturers will accelerate.
Out. “It must be reaffirmed that investment behavior is not bad results for the entire industry..
“Wang Gong said that the survival of the fittest is the road to mature through the entire industry. The negative impact of” investment overheating “may cause the blind follow-style investment and financing behavior and part of the power lithium battery manufacturer produced by” subsidies “, but These effects will also become in the past short time. At present, the market share in the field of power lithium batteries is continuously concentrated, industry integration, standardized development and from production to recycling dynamic lithium battery industry chain will be completed under the double support of capital and policies.
. Torsional situation promotes healthy development How to reverse investment “one bee” in turn lead to a common problem of “over-yield”, promote the healthy development of the industry. First, the production warning should be strengthened, and the safety supervision should be strengthened.
. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that effective, real production information helps investors and the company’s reasonable decision-making, can establish production announcements and early warning mechanisms, and check and promptly publish information from government agencies or third-party non-profit organizations, and eliminate “rotten” Tail “project and” accounting “behavior, focus on yield utilization and production changes. From the protection of consumer benefits, strengthen the supervision of illegal battery products, companies with battery quality safety issues track investigations, and implement effective punishment measures.
Second, encourage marketization and merger. Jiang Wangyue said that in the elimination of low-end production, the market will play key uses, technology backward, large scale, form-dispersed company lack of competitiveness, naturally eliminated under the market’s survival phase..
With the playback of the market mechanism, the merger and restructuring between the company will speed up the steps. The company’s concentration and competitiveness are further improved..
In addition, developing focuses from expansion of expansion and highlighting. Currently, the development strategy of mainstream companies in power lithium batteries is no longer yield expansion, but should be able to optimize production, through core technological innovation and intelligent level improvement to achieve product improvement, fundamentally improve competitiveness. At present, new energy vehicle companies have higher requirements for the energy density, cycle life and safety of dynamic lithium-ion batteries, and the improvement of dynamic lithium battery performance is urgent to break through.
. Therefore, the company should increase the support of basic research, accelerate the transformation of research results, attach importance to the training of talents, strengthen the synergy of production and research, and use technology innovation to high-end field concentration, create competitive advantages..
“Improve the level of intelligent manufacturing, the improvement of the promotion of lithium battery, yield optimization is critical. “Jiang Wangyue pointed out that my country’s power lithium battery industry is still winning in” quantity “, the production scale is large but the quality is not as good as Japanese and South Korea, especially consistency, has a big gap; second, the power lithium battery industry is a manufacturing category, Intelligent manufacturing can help quality precision control, and reduce production costs. Enhance intelligence, information, and automation levels are a systematic project, still need to continue to invest in companies and the government.
. In short, “” To promote the healthy development of the industry must rely on ‘marketization “, but cannot neglect the positive use of the policy. “Wang Jie analyzed that the standardization of industry standards, the high standard requirements for subsidies and the correct guidance of the investment direction, still indispensable in the high-speed growth period of the power lithium battery industry.
In particular, it is necessary to continue to support a batch of technology advanced, chain perfect, product quality clearance, while the “counterfeitability” of these companies is required to ensure my country’s largest new energy vehicle market in the world in power lithium batteries. And the leading position in the new energy vehicle. .