Battery costs account for serious imbalances or become the ‘final straw’ of the overwhelming battery company

Battery costs account for serious imbalances or become the 'final straw' of the overwhelming battery company

Due to the rise in raw materials, the current material material in the cost of the power lithium battery has reached half.. Under normal circumstances, this account ratio should be around 30% -40%.

“Nickel, cobalt, and manganese, the cost of the three elements of nickel has accounted for more than 90% of the current material cost, which is extremely abnormal.. Li Jianzhong, General Manager of Positive Material Manufacturer, Beijing Dangsheng Technology Co.

, Ltd.. Data show that in 2017, the price of electrolytic cobalt has exceeded double, and the price of lithium carbonate has increased by more than 30%, and there is nearly 50% of the cost of some types of ternary positive material material.

. In 2017, my country’s power lithium battery output value reached 72.5 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, far below 60% of growth in 2016.

. However, my country’s power lithium battery four key materials (positive materials, negative electrode materials, separators, and electrolyte) reached 61 billion yuan last year, up 62% year-on-year. Among them, the output value of the positive electrode material accounts for the maximum, reaching 71.

5%, its output value is also the largest. Wu Hui, Director of the Ivene Institute of Economics, said that the decline in the growth rate of battery output value lies in the decline in the price of the power lithium battery caused by subsidies..

Dynamic lithium battery price declines and raw material prices, will further compress battery company’s gross profit, will drop from around 30% to 20%. According to data from Ivene Economic Research Institute, last year, the average price of dynamic lithium battery decreased by 24% year-on-year. As of the end of last year, it was as low as 1.

4 yuan / WH.. At present, in order to deal with the pressure of the price of power lithium battery and the rise of raw material costs, battery companies have chosen to reduce production costs by further expanding production scale, expanding industrial chains.

. According to the production expansion plan proposed by the battery “giant”, it is estimated that by 2020, CATL’s lithium-ion battery production will be raised from 17.09GWH in 2017 to 50GWH.

. BYD also responded to investors asking questions at last year that its power lithium battery production will be upgraded from 16GWH in 2017 to 39GWH in 2020..

Tianjin Lifan also plans to increase production to 30GWH by 2020. However, the expansion of battery production also brought a crisis of over-yield. Liu Yanlong, secretary general of my country’s Chemistry and Physical Power Industry Association, said that the output of the power lithium battery company is about 140GWH, which has risen by 36.

61% year-on-year, with an effective output of approximately 37GWH, but the amount of production is only 35 %, Existence of excess structural risks. It is expected that the production utilization rate of lithium battery in 2018 will remain further, and the medium and low-end output will face phase-out and integration..

In 2017, the first CATL ranked first CATL mentioned in March (updated), in 2017, the company’s lithium-ion battery production was 17.08GWh, the output was 12.5.

54% yield utilization.. This number has dropped nearly 17 percentage points compared to 2016.

. In addition, the production utilization rate of the CATL ternary precursor is 97.12%.

. According to reports, the output of the second-line battery company is 30%, and the small and medium battery factory is only 15% or even less..

Liu Yanlong said that the company’s first-line companies will gradually escape the market share through technical advantages, and the medium and low-end output will face the eliminated crisis.. Wu Hui believes that by 2020, the number of powered lithium battery companies will fall from 90 in 2017 to 20.

Fang Jianhua, former President of Guoxuan’s high school, has also mentioned that the elimination speed of the power lithium battery company will gradually increase, by 2020, the power lithium battery company or eliminated out of the game. “It’s very difficult to reduce battery costs to 1.3 yuan / WH.

. “Li Jianzhong said, with the production and battery process costs, considering the cost of raw material costs, solving raw material price problems is the company must pay attention..

“In the future, this cost may also depends on the occupation of resources.. He said.

On April 12, when the promotion of the Sheng Technology said on the performance description, it will seek the expansion of the upstream resources, develop new small cobalt or cobalt material systems, etc. to break through the resources bottleneck through the strategic cooperation of the supplier..

At the same time, considering that the recycling battery is also one of the important sources of raw material resources, and the promotion of the promotion technology, the retaining battery recycling. By 2020, it is expected that the recovery of my country’s domestic automobile power lithium battery will reach 257,000 tons..

With regard to the recycled ternary power lithium battery, by dismantling the amount of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper, aluminum, graphite, diaphragm, etc., can achieve economic benefits of approximately 429 million yuan per ton, with economic feasibility. my country’s recycling metal cobalt metal is about 10,000 tons of metal, and with the improvement of the dynamic lithium battery recovery system, it is expected that there will be a significant impact on the supply of 2020.

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